Swamped by crises at home, Sunak expected to adopt pragmatic Asia policy

Faced with his country’s worst economic crisis in a generation, a war in Ukraine and an increasingly assertive China, new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has his work cut out for him, both at home and abroad.

But unlike his two predecessors, the former chancellor of the exchequer is expected to take a more pragmatic approach to foreign relations, particularly with Indo-Pacific countries.

Sunak, the fifth Conservative prime minister in six years, has vowed to prioritize “policies not personalities,” while attempting to unite his party and pursuing more mainstream policies after his predecessor, Liz Truss, lasted just seven weeks in office following a failed tax-cutting budget that shook financial markets.

At the same time, the 42-year-old son of Indian immigrants will have to build a constructive relationship with Europe and the United States, all while confronting Russian aggression in Ukraine and encouraging a global response to the current economic crisis.

That said, Britain’s youngest prime minister in more than 200 years has very little foreign policy experience, having spent his ministerial career to date in the Treasury and as secretary of state for local government.

‘More caution, less showmanship’

But given his pragmatic approach and economic focus, analysts expect him to opt for continuity, as indicated by the reappointment of James Cleverly as foreign secretary, Ben Wallace as defense minister and Jeremy Hunt as chancellor of the exchequer, while focusing more on building resilience, connectivity and prosperity rather than on ideological talk.

“Sunak is temperamentally very different from Boris Johnson. We can expect more caution, fewer missteps, less showmanship,” said James D.J. Brown, an associate professor of political science at Temple University Japan. “There will be continuity here too, with the U.K. continuing to emphasize the need to uphold a rules-based order in the Asia Pacific.

“As a pragmatist, who believes that the U.K.'s international role should not exceed its capabilities, Sunak is likely to avoid some of Truss' more expansive language about a ‘network of liberty,’ which at times sounded neoconservative in tone,” he added.

Although Sunak has made very few statements on his vision for Britain’s relations with Asia, analysts expect the new prime minister to continue to promote his country’s engagement with the region in line with the U.K’s “Indo-Pacific tilt” — an ambitious plan for the U.K. to become “the European partner with the broadest and most integrated presence” in Asia.

At the top of his agenda will be economic and security interests.

Sunak, a former Goldman Sachs analyst, “will expect greater value for money when it comes to defense commitments, especially in Asia,” said Jamie Gaskarth, a professor of international relations at Britain’s Open University.

Against this backdrop, Alessio Patalano, a professor at King’s College London, believes Sunak will likely push for closer U.K.-Japan ties. He noted that British policymakers are very keen to strengthen ties with Japan — from military cooperation over the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which will replace the Japanese F-2 fighter, to political, cultural and trade ties.

Meanwhile, there are discussions about extending the AUKUS security arrangement, which provides a mechanism for joint investment by Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. in science and technologies.

“There are also discussions about extending this arrangement to other countries such as Japan and could also include the space sector," wrote Patricia Lewis, a security expert at Chatham House.

Economic stability over ideology

Patalano says Sunak has made clear he intends to have a strong position on China and limit its influence and interference in the U.K.

That said, because his career to date has been domestically focused, he has yet to set out a wider vision for the U.K. in a post-Brexit world, which is why experts believe he is likely to emphasize trade and economic stability over ideological positions.

“As someone narrowly focused on the economy, Sunak is certain to appreciate the unavoidable reality of the need to maintain trade ties with China,” Brown noted.

Gaskarth agreed, saying that Sunak’s main effort in the region is likely to be through bilateral agreements on trade, rather than security.

“He may be more cautious over Taiwan to avoid extending U.K. commitments or antagonizing the Chinese,” he added.

Tina Burrett, an associate professor of political science at Sophia University, has a similar view.

“Sunak articulated a hard-line position on China during his leadership campaign against Liz Truss over the summer. ... As prime minister, however, I think we can expect Sunak to take a realist, pragmatic approach to China and other foreign policy issues.”

Domestic issues first

But given the urgency and magnitude of the challenges facing the U.K. both domestically and within Europe, there are questions as to how much Sunak will be able to focus on Britain’s Indo-Pacific ties, at least for the time being.

Foreign policy, especially toward East Asia, will be well down the list of priorities, said Brown, noting that managing the U.K.’s current economic crisis will be the prime minister's immediate focus.

“Sunak will put everything into demonstrating to financial markets that the period of political chaos in the U.K. has come to an end,” he said. “He also has the sizable task of trying to reverse the Conservative Party's more than 30-point deficit to Labour in the opinion polls.”

David Lawrence, a research fellow at Chatham House, said the new leader’s overriding priority will be to unite his party. Moreover, Sunak will have to convince the public that he has a mandate to govern, while avoiding calling a general election at a time when the Conservatives would probably lose, he added.