Little to celebrate as Japan and China mark 50 years of ties

Japan and China mark half a century of diplomatic relations on Thursday, but analysts say there is little to celebrate as ties grow increasingly acrimonious over territorial disputes, rising defense spending and the fate of self-ruled Taiwan.

While the relationship went into a deep freeze around 2012 amid tit-for-tat moves over the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, signs of a thaw appeared in 2018 when Chinese President Xi Jinping seemed poised for his first state visit to Japan.

But any potential for a breakthrough was short-lived.

Just as the COVID-19 pandemic hit — and Xi was forced to cancel his visit — regional tensions spiked over security issues, including fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which quickly extinguished progress.

Now, experts say, the best that Tokyo and Beijing can hope for is to stop ties from crumbling further in the near-term.

“Perhaps the best way to see the relationship at the moment is preventing further deterioration,” said Sheila Smith, a Japan expert at the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations.

That could prove to be a tough balancing act for Japan, especially as Tokyo revises the country’s National Security Strategy and two other key security documents later this year. Changes to those documents — which are expected to lay the foundation for the country’s security policy for years to come — are widely seen as being driven by concerns about China and its military modernization push.

Security concerns

Not wanting to be left behind after U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to communist-ruled China in February 1972, Tokyo was quick to normalize ties with Beijing on Sept. 29 that year, officially ending the state of war between the two countries and dropping its recognition of Taiwan.

And while Japan served as a model for China’s economic expansion in the early decades of the relationship, with trade and investment continuing to grow steadily even today, security ties have been more contentious, especially over the last 10 years.

Beijing continues to push its ambitious modernization plan for creating a “world-class” military by 2049 — a move that observers say would pave the way for China to accomplish one of its most cherished goals: Taking control of democratic Taiwan, which it views as a renegade province.

It has been precisely this goal, and China’s recent uncompromising view on Taiwan’s fate, that have unnerved Japan and sent the relationship spiraling, a growing number of experts say.

In recent months, Beijing has doubled down on its rhetoric and actions toward the self-ruled island.

Calling unification “the historic mission of the Communist Party” and conducting massive military exercises that enveloped Taiwan just last month, China has raised the specter of war — a conflict that more in Japan now view as an emergency for Tokyo.

These fears came to the forefront last month, when, during its large-scale drills, China lobbed ballistic missiles into waters close to Japan’s far-flung Nansei Islands for the first time. This was widely interpreted as an attempt to deter Japanese involvement in a hypothetical conflict over Taiwan.

Top challenge for ties

According to Zhang Baohui, a professor of international affairs at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, the Taiwan issue represents “the top challenge” for the Sino-Japanese relationship.

“Many in Japan believe that a war scenario in the Taiwan Strait presents a fundamental threat to Japan,” Zhang said. “They suggest that Japan needs to present a stronger posture in the Taiwan Strait.”

This explains the Japanese government’s increasingly strident stance on the Taiwan issue, he said. For its part, Zhang said, China is deeply concerned by the potential for Japanese military intervention in the strait.

“The Taiwan issue could profoundly shape Japan’s overall strategic posture, which will in turn affect its relations with China,” he added.

“Depending on Tokyo’s read of Beijing’s intentions for Taiwan, Japan could completely jettison its post-World War II posture and become a ‘normal’ state,” Zhang said, referring to the country's pacifist Constitution and its defense-oriented stance.

Indeed, Tokyo has in recent years loosened many of the shackles that have constrained its Self-Defense Forces since the end of the war, from security legislation passed in 2015 that allows the SDF to help an ally if it is attacked to the country's record-setting defense budgets.

More recently, Tokyo has stoked the ire of Beijing by emphasizing the importance of “peace and stability” in the Taiwan Strait in a number of high-level statements, while political heavyweights have claimed that Taipei’s fate is inextricably linked to Japan’s own fortunes.

“Over the last year or two, the issue of Taiwan has sparked a debate in Japan that has made policymakers much more vocal about its linkages to its national security,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at the U.S.-based Rand Corp. think tank.

Hornung said that while Japan has not changed its policy toward Taiwan nor ever announced a willingness to defend Taiwan, “the focus on Taiwan’s possible spillover onto Japan has sounded public alarm bells in Tokyo in ways that I have not seen before.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he added, “and the possible similarities between that war and how a war would unfold over Taiwan, has raised the crescendo on those even more.”

Kishida’s strong China stance

Beijing has repeatedly demanded that Tokyo “keep its promises and maintain the political foundation” of Sino-Japanese relations, saying that “on major issues of principle such as history and Taiwan ... there should be no ambiguity or backsliding.”

But Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has held firm with a surprisingly tough stance toward China, largely aligning his policies with those of late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Hailing from a “dovish” faction of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida has been quick to dispel any notion of being weak on China, making clear his position early in last year’s LDP presidential race and maintaining a firm stance since taking office.

“To defend the peace and stability of the region, I will say to China the things that need to be said and strongly urge China to act responsibly, while at the same time building up our dialogues with China on various outstanding issues and cooperating on matters of common interest,” Kishida said in an address in June, highlighting his signature policy of "realism diplomacy for a new era.”

“He has very much followed the blueprint laid by Abe,” said Hornung. “That is to strengthen ties with the U.S.; strengthen the SDF in critical areas; deepen ties with like-minded nations; and push back on China when necessary.”

Although Xi — who was reaffirmed as the Communist Party’s “core” on Monday — is believed to have more flexibility within China’s power structure to advocate for improved ties with Japan, experts say such moves are unlikely, at least in the near-term.

Xi is “not in a position to be soft on foreign policy” as he moves closer to clinching an unprecedented third term in power at a rare party congress scheduled to begin Oct. 16 in Beijing, according to Sebastian Maslow, a Japan expert and senior lecturer in international relations at Sendai Shirayuri Women's College.

“With COVID causing domestic frustration and international criticism mounting over Beijing’s position in the Ukraine war, Xi has little room for concessions and adjustment in his foreign policy if he wants to avoid being considered a weak leader at home,” Maslow said.

Still, that doesn’t mean chances for a rapprochement won’t present themselves.

Although Xi and Kishida have yet to meet face-to-face, holding only a single, 30-minute phone call last October shortly after the prime minister took up his post, the two could have their first opportunity for in-person talks this fall on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia, or at the the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Bangkok.

Until then, relations between the two Asian powerhouses are likely to remain in a holding pattern, with Tokyo continuing to beef up its defenses while looking to prevent ties from worsening.

“The immediate and top challenge for Tokyo will be risk mitigation in the relationship ... while deepening investment in the military capabilities needed to deter aggression,” said Smith at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Time is not on Japan's side.”