The list of challenges faced by the Philippines’ new president is long. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — the namesake son of the late Philippine dictator — has taken over a polarized country struggling with pandemic- and inflation-related economic woes, as well as corruption and crises in the education and public health sectors.

At the same time, his administration, which took over the reins in late June, has inherited major foreign policy and defense challenges from the previous government. Manila’s territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea remain unresolved and the country finds itself in the middle of an intensifying “great power competition” between Washington and Beijing.

His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, gained international attention for seeking to pivot away from the United States toward China, and trying to systematically dismantle Manila’s military alliance with Washington, only to have to roll back those attempts after realizing that Beijing was not reciprocating his outreach.

A new start with Beijing

Nevertheless, Marcos Jr. — nicknamed “Bongbong” — is expected to adopt at least some of his predecessor’s pro-China policies, given his political alignment with Duterte, as he attempts to both reset and balance ties with the two superpowers.

In fact, during a briefing held in early July, the Philippine leader said he would seek to “elevate” ties with China by finding new ways to work together and “resolve the conflicts” with Beijing. He has also spoken about potentially having closer cultural and educational ties — and even military exchanges — with China to allow relations to normalize after years of tensions over territorial disputes.

During his election campaign, the 64-year-old said he would pursue a bilateral approach toward China — a position favored by Beijing, which claims most of the South China Sea but rejects any involvement by nonclaimant states in territorial disputes.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at Malacanang Palace in Manila on July 6. | Presidential Photographers Division / via REUTERS
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at Malacanang Palace in Manila on July 6. | Presidential Photographers Division / via REUTERS

At the same time, he has signaled his preference for a foreign policy based on a wide network of strategic partnerships and stressed the need for multilateral engagement, including an Association of Southeast Asian Nations that is active for its member countries, “because they are stakeholders in this."

Many of Marcos Jr.’s statements have been well received in Beijing, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying that the bilateral relationship had "turned a new page" with Marcos Jr.’s election and that Beijing was ready to help usher in what he called a "new golden era" between the two countries.

During a meeting with Wang in Manila on July 6, Marcos said the two sides discussed several potential areas of cooperation, including agriculture, infrastructure and energy, with the Philippine leader seeking large-scale Chinese investment for, among other things, ambitious infrastructure development initiatives designed to boost economic growth.

Tougher approach on territorial disputes

That said, Marcos Jr. has also displayed an awareness of the risks of continuing his predecessor’s unabashed pro-China policies. The new president has indicated he understands that he cannot be seen as being too friendly to China in a country where there is widespread anti-China sentiment, both among the public and the defense establishment, after years of Duterte's unsuccessful overtures toward Beijing.

Marcos Jr. has therefore vowed to take a firm stance against any Chinese threats to Philippine sovereign interests and territorial integrity, particularly as Manila continues to protest what it views as the repeated harassment of Philippine fishermen by Chinese coast guard and “maritime militia” — vessels that are on the surface engaged in commercial fishing but also operate alongside law enforcement and the navy. The country has also expressed concerns about the Chinese exploitation of fisheries and energy resources in what it regards as Philippine waters.

Filipino activists stage a protest outside the Chinese consular office in Makati City, Philippines, on the sixth anniversary of an international tribunal ruling that invalidated China's historical claims in the South China Sea. | Reuters
Filipino activists stage a protest outside the Chinese consular office in Makati City, Philippines, on the sixth anniversary of an international tribunal ruling that invalidated China's historical claims in the South China Sea. | Reuters

In fact, Marcos Jr. has warned that the Philippines “will not cede any one square inch to any country, particularly China,” and pledged to uphold the July 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which invalidated most of Beijing’s South China Sea claims.

He has also highlighted the need for a "stronger, bigger and effective” air force as well as a military presence in disputed areas of the South China Sea. The objective, he says, “is to show to China that we are defending what we consider our territorial waters” and to “make (the Chinese) aware that we know what they are doing, and we don't agree with what they are doing, and we carry on with our diplomatic channels, other channels, to fix the problem so it won't happen again.”

Strengthening the Philippine armed forces, coast guard and other security agencies will be key in this regard, not only in terms of standing up to China, but also of implementing more diverse foreign policies, said Chester Cabalza, founder of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation. This would allow Manila to become less dependent on the U.S. for its security and open up new possibilities for multilateral engagement, he said.

Walking a very fine line

Marcos Jr.’s remarks on defending Philippine sovereignty mark a major departure from Duterte’s often defeatist stance on the South China Sea dispute, leading analysts to argue that the 64-year-old is unlikely to repeat the foreign policy mistakes of his predecessor, regardless of the deepening U.S.-Chinese rivalry.

“Marcos is likely to be influenced by the policies of both his father and his predecessor, yielding a new government interested in engaging China while keeping the United States close by,” Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the U.S.-based Rand Corp., said in an interview. “Yet despite his political alignment with Duterte, Marcos probably won't be choosing a side. He is likely to tweak Duterte's foreign policy just enough to avoid the same pitfalls and maximize the strategic benefits to the Philippines.”

Going by previous remarks, Marcos Jr. is likely to pursue an independent foreign policy while walking a very fine line between Washington and Beijing.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in Manila in 2018 | AFP-Jiji
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in Manila in 2018 | AFP-Jiji

“No matter what the superpowers are trying to do, we have to work within the interest of the Philippines. We cannot allow ourselves to be part of the foreign policy of other countries,” he said in one of the presidential debates during the campaign.

For instance, Marcos Jr. has indicated he would not seek U.S. assistance in dealing with China unless absolutely necessary. “The problem is between China and us. If the Americans come in, it's bound to fail because you are putting the two protagonists together,” he said.

Nonetheless, Marcos Jr.'s hesitance to involve the U.S. military in future potential conflicts with China should not be a source of concern in Washington, according to Grossman.

“Unlike Duterte, Marcos appears to highly value the alliance. In fact, he might be arguing for Manila to do more on its own — a development, if it comes to pass, that should be embraced by Washington,” he wrote in an article for Foreign Policy magazine.

Grossman wrote that such an approach would fit neatly into U.S. President Joe Biden's “integrated deterrence strategy,” in which U.S. allies and partners work together to deter China and other adversaries, such as Russia.

Resetting ties with Washington

Marcos Jr.’s recognition of the importance of maintaining the U.S.-Philippine alliance — viewed by Philippine political analyst Richard Javad Heydarian as “essential to keeping the military and the public onside” in a country with historically strong ties with the United States — is what arguably distinguishes him the most from his predecessor.

The Philippine leader has described the relationship with the United States as “not something to be cavalier about,” indicating his intention to prioritize the alliance and reset ties with Washington following the setback of the Duterte years.

Another important reason for this approach is that, unlike Duterte, the new president doesn’t have a resentment against the West, explained Philippines analyst Daniel Davis.

“The Marcos family has long ties to the U.S. After his father fell from power, the Marcos family fled to Hawaii. They have long viewed themselves as part of the Western international elite, and Marcos is a reputed Anglophile, having studied in England,” he said. “Those cultural ties are likely to draw him closer to the U.S.”

Protesters stage a rally in Manila on July 4 calling on Marcos Jr. to bring down the price of rice. | AFP-Jiji
Protesters stage a rally in Manila on July 4 calling on Marcos Jr. to bring down the price of rice. | AFP-Jiji

Against this backdrop, Marcos is likely to “let the Philippine foreign policy and defense establishment continue doing what they have been over the last year or so: deepening the alliance with the United States in the face of continued Chinese coercion,” said Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Nevertheless, the growing Sino-U.S. rivalry in Asia means that Marcos will have to perform a deft balancing act to effectively pursue an independent foreign policy that best serves his country’s interests.

“Being economically tied to two superpowers increasingly at loggerheads, it will be a daunting foreign policy challenge for the Philippines to achieve a balance between Washington and Beijing,” Davis said.

“What the Philippines wants is a good relationship with both countries, but this will be difficult as being too close to one will hurt relations with the other.”