Russia’s invasion of Ukraine carries huge risks for a world economy that’s yet to fully recover from the pandemic shock.

The conflict already looks like the most serious war in Europe since 1945. Russian forces carried out airstrikes, captured army bases and advanced toward Kyiv as civilians fled. Western officials said the capital may fall at any time, with its air defenses eliminated.

The assault followed weeks of tensions that already sent tremors through the world economy by ratcheting up energy prices. That accelerated on Thursday. Oil briefly climbed past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, while European natural gas jumped as much as 62%.