India is likely to see a rise in COVID-19 infections building into a new — though smaller — virus wave that may peak in October, according to a mathematical model by researchers who accurately predicted the tapering of a brutal surge of cases earlier this year.

The country may see a worsening of its outbreak as soon as this month, with the next wave peaking in the best-case scenario with less than 100,000 infections a day, or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario, according to estimates by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively.

States with high COVID-19 rates, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could "skew the picture,” Vidyasagar said in an email.