Europe braces for a post-American world. Is Japan ready?

The post-Cold War order is ending and the world is rebalancing.

The U.S. reassessment of its commitment to Ukraine and the prospect of a transformed relationship with Russia are prompting governments around the world to similarly rethink their defense and security policies. Europe is pacing this adjustment, but Asian governments will have to shift as well.

Concerns about Donald Trump’s foreign policy crystallized last week during a stunning Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The ambush by the so-called leader of the free world and his vice president of a man who is leading efforts to repel a bloody invasion made plain that old certainties have evaporated and ties that once bound Washington to partners and allies in Europe have dissipated.

In the days since that spectacle, the U.S. administration announced that it was pausing military aid for Ukraine and revealed that it cut off intelligence-sharing as well. Both steps, ostensibly done to press the Ukrainian government to join peace talks, undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a savage aggressor.

The U.S. insists that its goal is a ceasefire and an end to the bloodshed. A diplomatic posture that makes demands only of Ukraine and not Russia suggests, however, that Washington has taken sides. Not surprisingly, a Kremlin spokesman has said that Trump is “rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations” in a way that “largely aligns with our vision.”

How will the world respond to this drastic shift? So far, Europe is saying all the right things. In the days after the White House meeting, European leaders rallied around Ukraine, promising to continue their support. The European Union’s foreign policy and security chief, Kaja Kallas. declared that “it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.” French President Emmanuel Macron echoed that sentiment, saying that “There is an aggressor, which is Russia and a people who have suffered aggression, which is Ukraine,” a simple, forthright statement that the U.S. now shies away from.

This week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe must turn Ukraine into a “steel porcupine” with urgent arms deliveries. While Trump complains that his country is providing the bulk of aid to Ukraine, in fact the U.S. and the EU have provided nearly equal amounts of total assistance to the besieged country, $122.2 billion from the former and $121.2 billion from the latter.

The U.S. has provided more military assistance — $68.7 billion vs. $53.6 billion from Europe — but most of that money has been spent on U.S. weapons, which means that the money ultimately goes to U.S. companies. European leaders last month were putting together a military aid package that could reach as high as €20 billion.

While Europe will struggle to replace all U.S. assistance — certain operational capabilities, such as air-to-air refueling or missile defense, will prove particularly difficult to provide — experts believe that it can, with determination, ensure that Ukrainians are able to continue fighting and defending their freedom and their sovereignty.

Backing Ukraine, though, is only part of a much bigger assignment. Ultimately, Europe must defend itself as well. Again, European leaders get it. Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, a conservative who has long supported the alliance with the U.S., said that his “absolute priority” is to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible ... (to) really achieve independence from the USA.” He has concluded that “this administration (is) largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has warned that European nations must increase defense spending to more than 3% of gross domestic product to prepare for a future in which they don't have to rely on the U.S. to come to their defense. To get started, von der Leyen declared that “Europe is in an era of rearmament,” and proposed spending an additional €800 billion (about $860 billion) on defense.

At a summit Thursday, European leaders endorsed two initiatives — €150 billion of new loans backed by the region’s shared budget and a relaxation of rules governing debts and deficits to allow member countries to spend more on defense. They called on the European Commission to present details on the two proposals.

While there is great skepticism about Europe’s ability to step up, on paper it is a formidable competitor. The EU economy is nearly 10 times that of Russia — and Russia is struggling. The EU collective population is three times that of Russia, which is facing serious demographic challenges. According to 2024 numbers, EU nations together spent $457 billion on defense, nearly three times Russia’s $146 billion defense budget.

Central to any credible European defense effort will be a nuclear deterrent. There are two independent nuclear powers in Europe, France and the United Kingdom, and while both have arsenals much smaller than that of Russia or the U.S., to their credit, they have recognized the need to commence this discussion. This week, Macron said that while its nuclear forces are “complete, sovereign and entirely French,” he would, “in response to the historic call of the future German chancellor ... open the strategic debate on the protection of our European continental allies through our deterrence.”

The issue is will — historically, Europe has been reluctant to step up, preferring to let the United States do the job of defending Europe. That is no longer an option and Europe’s leaders understand this. This will force hard choices, however. There must be changes to the social contract; the welfare state will come under strain. Europe is capable of adjusting. It must.

It isn’t clear that Asia is similarly ready for the new world. Japanese leaders are struggling to come to grips with Trump’s mindset and the new U.S. posture. Without a regional security structure like NATO, they recognize that Japan still relies on the U.S. for its security. Tokyo must therefore tread softly while stepping up efforts to provide its own defense.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his top security officials are not criticizing Trump. They are insisting on the need for a united front by the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations and continued support for Ukraine, both with the goal of creating a fair, sustainable and just peace.

Three years ago, Japanese politicians celebrated a determination to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP. Now they know that is not enough. More spending is required, but ultimate success requires cooperation. Effectively countering regional security threats demands that Japan forge a broad coalition that supports peace, stability and the rule of law. It should find many willing partners throughout the Indo-Pacific.

Australia is one, South Korea is another, although relations with Seoul are likely to become more complicated as that country’s political drama plays out. Tokyo must seek out other governments that will join its efforts to protect the peace.

Meanwhile, Russia wages war against Ukraine. Daily, there are drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian cities. Moscow continues its assault against a democratic nation that insists on the right to determine its own future. Only by standing with the forces for peace will such savagery be repelled and those who seek to emulate that aggression be deterred.