Ishiba faces challenges from the opposition — and his own party

Shigeru Ishiba was elected prime minister of Japan this week, a foregone conclusion after winning the vote for Liberal Democratic Party president last week.

The nation's new leader offers a new face for the LDP, an appealing alternative for a party that has been tarnished by scandal and for which approval ratings have been falling.

A considerable part of his appeal stems from his opposition to prevailing currents within the LDP, guaranteeing that he will battle elements of his own party as much as the opposition when he is in power. The internecine struggles will be put off until after the general election Ishiba has called for on Oct. 27. After that ballot, though, he will be tested by external events as well as internal forces. It promises to be a rocky tenure at a time when Japan needs stability at the top levels of national leadership.

Last week’s ballot was Ishiba’s fifth run for party president. He had been frustrated in each of his previous campaigns. Popular among the general public, his determination to challenge the LDP leadership, both in elections and on the floor of the parliament, had antagonized many of his colleagues. He was particularly critical of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. His questioning of Abe’s abrasive style and his conservative policies won Ishiba the title of “the anti-Abe.”

In the past, party leaders who headed factions would have managed this election, determining in advance the winner and apportioning Cabinet and party posts in ways that ensured that their faction members were rewarded. But a political funds scandal tarred the LDP in recent months and forced the dismantling of the organizational structure that allowed party bosses to run that process.

As a result, nine candidates jostled to succeed Fumio Kishida, the most ever in an LDP leadership race. More intriguing, the results were not predictable. Ishiba came in second in the first round of balloting, bested by economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, but since neither won a majority, they proceeded to a two-person runoff.

In that vote, Takaichi’s conservatism was too much for many party members. They rallied to Ishiba, propelling him to victory. Equally, if not more, important to them were calculations about which candidate would be more appealing to the public in the election that was on the horizon. Who did they want to be posing with on their poster during the campaign? Ishiba won that contest, propelling him to a 215-194 tally to win the runoff.

Having prevailed in the party vote, Ishiba was then elected prime minister Tuesday morning. Even before that ballot, he announced that he would soon dissolve the Diet and call for a general election to be held on Oct. 27. While awkward — technically he had no power to set an election date before being confirmed as prime minister — it was expected. Most observers believe that both of Ishiba’s predecessors as prime minister, Yoshihide Suga and Kishida, waited too long before calling an election, allowing the favorability bounce that follows the unveiling of a new government to dissipate.

The first problem for Ishiba is that the public seems ambivalent about his administration. Initial polls after inauguration of the new Cabinet gave it approval ratings of just over 50%, well below that of its predecessors. A good deal of the problem is the accumulated weight of scandal; voters recognize that a new face is not enough to rehabilitate the party.

The new Cabinet acknowledges as much. Ishiba has not included any politicians from the former Abe faction, the one most deeply involved in the funding scandal. That may make sense from a public relations perspective but it is a dangerous move since it antagonizes the largest group of politicians within the LDP. The selection of Seiichiro Murakami as internal affairs and communications minister throws fuel on those flames since Murakami was suspended from his party position for a year in 2022 after describing Abe as a “traitor.”

He also opens himself to charges of hypocrisy by naming Takeshi Iwaya as foreign minister. Iwaya is close to Ishiba, having served as his campaign manager in the presidential ballot, and former Prime Minister Kishida, who reportedly threw his support to Ishiba in the race. But Iwaya’s own political group failed to report ¥5 million in donations over two years, though he called it an administrative error.

Ishiba now has three weeks to prepare for the Oct. 27 vote. He has three tasks during that time. First, he has to put forward an agenda that wins over the public. For the most part, that means addressing economic issues — rising inflation, stagnant wages, growing inequality — that are top of mind for most voters. There is almost nothing of substance he can do in that time but he has to signal that he understands and will act upon their concerns.

It also requires him to clarify positions he has staked out, such as his call for an “Asian NATO,” which are at odds with traditional security policies and could complicate relations with the United States. His Cabinet is heavy with defense experts — Ishiba, Iwaya, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and his Defense Minister Gen Nakatani, have all previously served as defense minister — who have long histories dealing with the U.S. He will need to draw on all their expertise and experience.

Second, he has to show his mastery of statecraft. Ishiba said that he will attend the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that will be held Oct. 11 in Laos. He will meet other regional leaders on the sidelines of that conclave and that will be his first opportunity to demonstrate his diplomatic skills — and it’s a critical venue. He can also expect challenges from other regional governments: China and Russia have been stepping up their provocations in recent months and they will want to test a new leader.

Third, Ishiba has to control his party. This will be the most difficult assignment. The old guard in the LDP has made abundantly clear its opposition to him and his election victory settled nothing as far as they are concerned. Tomohiko Taniguchi, former speechwriter for Abe, outlined their complaints in commentary published in Monday’s Japan Times.

They will swallow their criticism until after the October election, not wanting to undermine the LDP’s prospects in that ballot. Once the results are in, however, all bets are off. If the party does not perform well and loses seats, Ishiba’s tenure may be one of the shortest in modern Japanese political history.

Yet even a victory will not mollify that group. They consider Ishiba an interloper who cannot be trusted to pursue the policies that are most important to them. He may be able to dampen some of their anger if he brings Abe supporters into a new Cabinet after the general election. But there is no guarantee that will be enough. Ishiba needs to be ready for challenges coming from all directions: outside the country, from the opposition and from his own party.