Every generation believes that it is living in an unprecedented era with unique challenges. But time and again, the same patterns and motivations have weakened and even destroyed civilizations, or strengthened them and enabled them to flourish. To learn from the past requires recognizing its symmetries and resonances.
For example, the rise and decline of powers over the centuries has established some basic tenets. Chief among them is that when a dominant power faces two rivals, the rival that does not enter into conflict with the dominant power is usually the one that triumphs.
In the late 18th century, Great Britain prevailed over the Netherlands (the dominant power of the period), while France, the other contender, who went to war against the Netherlands, never became a superpower. In the early 20th century, the United States prevailed over Great Britain largely because of the wars between the United Kingdom and its other rival, Germany.
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