In recent weeks, Russian officials have promoted the idea that once the war in Ukraine ends, Western businesses — particularly American companies — would be welcome to return to Russia. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has responded with interest. But how realistic is that prospect? Would Western investments and joint ventures really come back?
The Greek philosopher Heraclitus once famously observed, “No man ever steps into the same river twice, for it’s not the same river, and he’s not the same man.” The same could be said of Russia. In the 1990s, following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Western businesses poured into the country. Over the next 30 years, these businesses invested hundreds of billions of dollars in Russia, bringing not just capital but also expertise and institutional connections. In many ways, they helped integrate Russia into the global economy.
That legacy has been largely erased. On paper, several thousand Western companies still operate in Russia, but most are little more than mailboxes or fronts for Russian business entities. The few remaining Western firms with meaningful operations are effectively trapped: they either cannot exit the market or are being pressured to sell their assets — often at huge losses — to well-connected Russians.
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