To empower Japan, new PM has to get hot on renewables

The political dust has finally settled. Fumio Kishida's decision to step down as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and as prime minister and the dissolution of several LDP factions made the race for the premiership unusually exciting. Now, Shigeru Ishiba has been anointed prime minister and his Cabinet has been christened.

However, for observers hoping that Japan steps up its ambitions in the fight against climate change, the LDP race was deeply disappointing and troubling.

The issue of climate change was nowhere to be seen or heard either in political debates or campaign speeches. Ironically, the leadership race kicked off as Japan was still reeling from its hottest summer on record — tied with last year’s — which saw levels of extreme heat that would have been "almost impossible" without global warming, according to a government assessment.

Furthermore, the candidates’ platforms on energy policy — an essential pillar of climate action — made it clear that none of them were willing to stray far from an unsatisfactory status quo.

If now-Prime Minister Ishiba sticks to the approach outlined during his campaign, he risks prolonging Japan’s laggard status in global efforts to address climate change. Furthermore, Ishiba and his ministers could damage Japan’s economic competitiveness, in direct contradiction with his campaign vows. To avoid this fate, LDP leaders need to update their understanding of renewable energy in light of the most recent findings.

In the crowded leadership contest, which ended on Sept. 27, the nine candidates strove to distinguish themselves from their rivals by painting a unique vision for the future of the party, and the country. On energy policy, however, one candidate after the other put forth positions that sounded like they were taken from the same script.

That script consisted of several, related points. Japan’s electricity demand is rising, driven by artificial intelligence, new data centers and semiconductor production. If this demand is to be reliably met, the government’s strategy must maximize all energy sources — with, crucially, "all energy sources" being shorthand for restarting idled nuclear reactors, building new ones, holding on to existing fossil fuel power plants and modestly increasing renewables like solar and offshore wind.

In short, the candidates supported the prevailing strategy already outlined in Kishida's “green transformation,” or GX, policy.

Ishiba's own position was more nuanced, but not by much. He nodded to the idea of maximizing renewables — interestingly, preferring to focus on geothermal and small-scale hydroelectric power — and energy efficiency, and went as far as to argue that Japan should rely less on nuclear in the long run. But in the short term, Ishiba adhered to the mainstream of the party’s stance that nuclear energy should continue to be used.

From what I have gathered, including in conversations with other energy analysts, the LDP’s conservative approach to energy seems to be undergirded by a handful of assumptions.

When it comes to renewables, many politicians believe that solar and wind are unreliable because they do not generate electricity constantly, are expensive and will therefore hurt Japan’s economy and competitiveness. On fossil fuels like coal and gas, the prevailing notion is that they are cheap to import and can hence ensure energy security. On nuclear, the unspoken belief is that restarting old and building new reactors will somehow be relatively quick and straightforward.

Political leaders need a reality check. Japan signed a pledge to triple global renewable energy capacity at the COP28 United Nations climate summit last year, yet it is clear that Ishiba’s outlook on renewables falls well short of this goal.

What is more, recent studies on Japan’s renewable energy potential and what it would cost to turn these sources into the main ones the country relies on paint a picture opposite to what the mainstream of the LDP believes.

First, Japan has abundant potential. The Environment Ministry, for example, has shown that the generation potential of usable solar, onshore and offshore wind, geothermal and small-scale hydroelectric power could cover all of the country’s current energy demand many times over — enough, therefore, to also meet projected future increases.

Second, recent studies by domestic think tanks and independent analysts point out that renewables can account for most of Japan’s energy mix reliably and cost-effectively, especially if accompanied by investments in energy storage systems and the country’s power grids. Today, in Japan, utility-scale solar — where a solar plant feeds energy into the power grid — is already cheaper than fossil fuel imports, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. And many assessments project that the cost of renewable electricity will keep falling.

Third, it is high time for Japan’s leaders to reframe renewables as a win-win-win for the economy, international competitiveness and energy security. Carefully designed policies can build up homegrown supply chains, engendering a skilled labor force and manufacturing capacity in a wide range of clean tech industries.

These economic benefits would likely be distributed across towns and villages hosting large-scale renewable infrastructure, helping to revitalize regions struggling with population decline.

Furthermore, reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports would strengthen Japan’s energy security and prevent the outflow of foreign exchange. Maximizing renewable energy would drastically reduce carbon emissions from Japan’s polluting industrial sectors, making its exports attractive to climate-progressive markets like the European Union.

While the political leadership remains out of touch with emerging energy trends, many Japanese companies now recognize the critical importance of bolder clean energy and climate targets.

Business and nongovernmental coalitions such as the Japan Climate Leaders Partnership and Japan Climate Initiative — which boast hundreds of companies and organizations from virtually every sector as members — separately issued statements earlier this year urging the Kishida government to adopt an ambitious energy and climate strategy.

They are now working behind the scenes to nudge the new administration to do the same. With more voices touting the all-around benefits of a renewable transition, they just might succeed in bringing the leadership’s view on energy up to speed.