Japan is holding firm to its position that it will make no major concessions in tariff negotiations with the United States, possibly to buy more time in the hope that mounting domestic pressure will force U.S. President Donald Trump to ease up and offer a better deal.
So far, the talks between Tokyo and Washington have yielded no tangible result.
After two rounds of high-level negotiations between chief tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and senior U.S. officials, including the treasury and commerce secretaries, the two sides are still struggling to even agree on an agenda for discussions.
According to news reports that emerged after the second round of high-level talks held earlier this month, U.S. officials presented a proposal to the Japanese delegation that only focuses on potentially lowering the "reciprocal" tariffs. They expressed reluctance to lower tariffs on autos, auto parts, steel and aluminum.
Japan has made it clear that no agreement can be made without putting all tariffs on the table, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stating that the country won’t back down on its demand that the duties on automobiles be eliminated.
“We are seeking a complete elimination. It's not a matter of being satisfied with a certain percentage,” he told a TV program on Sunday.
Ishiba reiterated his stance Monday, saying that Japan won’t accept a deal that only covers the higher-rate reciprocal tariffs. He added that Japanese farmers will be protected.
“We have absolutely no intention of sacrificing rice or other agricultural products for the sake of automobiles,” he told a Lower House committee on Monday morning.
Progress has been achieved by some countries already.
The United Kingdom last week negotiated a framework agreement in which the U.S. will lower duties on up to 100,000 British cars annually while maintaining a 10% tariff on most of all other imports.
On Monday in Switzerland, the United States announced that it has reached an agreement with China and that the two countries will substantially roll back tariffs on each other as they further discuss market access and other issues.
While both Tokyo and Washington have repeatedly stated they will aim for an agreement “as soon as possible,” analysts wonder if the lack of progress isn't part of Japan's strategy.
“Japan says it wants an agreement quickly, but its real intention is not to rush into making various concessions,” said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute.
Electoral politics might be one factor behind the stalling tactic, Kiuchi said.
News reports over the past two months have indicated that Japan might offer to import more American soybeans and corn. But the mere possibility of the government agreeing to import more rice has caused worry in the ranks of the Liberal Democratic Party.
“If Japan were to significantly increase the import quota for American rice, say, through nontariff means like minimum access imports, it would have a considerable negative effect on the election outcome," Kiuchi added, referring to elections scheduled for July. "So I think the government won’t take such steps at least until after the Upper House election.”
The cost of agreeing to U.S. demands might be another consideration.
The Trump administration has indicated its ultimate goal is to reduce Japan’s $68 billion trade surplus with the U.S. to zero. Compared with the U.K., which runs a trade deficit with the U.S. and therefore has little to lose in making a deal, Japan has much more at stake.
Patiently continuing tariff negotiations with the U.S. could essentially become a time-buying strategy — until the Trump administration decides to shift course to limit economic and political damage, Kiuchi said.
The U.S. economy is already showing signs of strain, while discontent is growing.
“The U.S. hasn’t reached that point yet. Under such circumstances, in order to get the U.S. to make a big tariff reduction now, Japan would have to make enormous concessions that are disadvantageous to announce at this stage,” Kiuchi said.
“I think Japan’s current stance is to persist in negotiations without making significant concessions, and to play the long game.”
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.