The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged Wednesday, prioritizing threats to growth — especially an escalating trade war — over the dangers of inflation, which is running at 4%.

Standing pat was widely expected.

Economists were unanimous in seeing back-to-back rate increases as unlikely from a central bank intent on playing it safe since roiling the markets last year with a surprise rate increase.

“The BOJ raised rates in January, so I think it's a basic assumption that it will take some months to assess the economic situation,” said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

Doubts were mainly centered on the rout in the Japanese bond market. Yields on long-dated securities have spiked dramatically this month, raising the possibility that the central bank’s hand could be forced.

The two-day policy board meeting that ended Wednesday followed the January meeting, in which the bank voted to increase its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008. Meetings will be held eight times this year, and February is one of the months skipped.

In a Bloomberg survey earlier this month, not a single economist polled projected a change in rates at this week's meeting. Analysts said that the bank was just not up for consecutive rate increases, especially given the uncertainty in the global economy.

Markets anticipated the dovishness. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average was up 1,000 points in the week ahead of the announcement, and the yen weakened slightly in that time.

In a news conference after the meeting on Wednesday, BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank’s long-held and oft-repeated stance, saying that it will continue to up rates if key economic indicators and price data are in line with its forecasts.

In the run-up to the rate decision, economic uncertainty has been building.

The United States placed 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports last week, and it will likely place 25% tariffs on auto imports early next month. These duties could be a drag on economic growth in Japan and make rate increases more difficult.

General instability related to the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which has been vigorously implementing policy and aggressively utilizing executive branch prerogatives, and war in the Middle East and Europe have further complicated the outlook.

“Since the last meeting in January, both positive and negative factors for a rate hike have strengthened,” Ueno said. “The pace of future rate hikes will change depending on the balance between domestic factors, such as wages and prices, and the global economic downside risks in relation to tariffs.”

Ueda said that uncertainties are growing as the Trump administration ramps up its tariff policy, adding that the BOJ will assess how this will affect the Japanese economy and the inflation outlook.

Stocks are down in the United States, with the Nasdaq Composite index more than 10% off its peak, while the specter of recession looms over the country. In Japan, economic statistics are already indicating some weakness. Cash earnings growth, household spending growth and gross domestic product figures all came in lower than expected last week.

The statistics also show inflation kicking up. Japanese households are struggling to make ends meet even as the BOJ says that the underlying rate is under its 2% target.

This year’s spring offensive wage negotiations are off to a strong start. The average increase so far is 5.46%, exceeding last year’s 5.28%. A big-enough jump could take the edge off inflation enough to make it less of an issue for the central bank.

“We are seeing high wage increases not just at large companies but also at relatively smaller companies, which indicates a spreading wage-hike momentum,” Ueda said.

And the yen has strengthened since the beginning of the year. This lowers the cost of imported goods, helps to keep prices down and gives the central bank more room to maneuver.

The Bloomberg survey showed that July is the most likely month for the next rate increase, with 48% forecasting that as the month for the next move higher.