Global shippers from AP Moller-Maersk to Cosco Shipping Holdings, which logged windfall earnings last year, may see a reversal of fortunes in 2025 as a potential reopening of the Red Sea route and punitive U.S. tariffs loom.

Plans by U.S. President Donald Trump to introduce new import levies are damaging trade, while the prospect of a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East could redirect traffic back through the Suez Canal, driving rates lower.

Global liner rates fell 5.9% sequentially in the week ended Feb. 27, after earlier breaking below $3,000 per 12-meter container for the first time since early May, according to World Container Index data. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has lost 57% from its peak in July.