Another year, another G7 summit done and dusted. How did Prime Minister Fumio Kishida do? Well, he’s thinking of an early election if that’s any indication. Japan Times news chief Kanako Takahara joins us to discuss Kishida’s political position following the event, while Gabriel Dominguez fills us in on what actually went down in Hiroshima.

Hosted by Shaun McKenna and produced by Dave Cortez.

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Shaun McKenna  00:08  

Welcome to Deep Dive from The Japan Times, I’m Shaun McKenna. 

From May 19 to the 21, Japan played host to the leaders of the world's biggest economies at the 49th Group of Seven annual summit, which was held in Hiroshima. The G7 is made up of Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Canada, and here's a few facts for you. The first G7 summit was actually a G6 in 1975, Canada didn't become a member till a year later. Japan has now hosted seven summits, and it wasn't until 2000 that it started hosting them outside of Tokyo. And the last G7 summit in Japan was held in 2016 in the Ise-Shima region, and it was hosted by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. 

Among the guests at the 2023 Hiroshima summit, only Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Indonesian President Joko Widodo were at the 2016 edition, with Trudeau representing a member state and Widodo having been invited as a guest to both.

So if you're not too much of a summit wonk, hopefully these bits of trivia will give you something to make small talk about over dinner. To take the conversation deeper though, I've invited Gabriel Dominguez on the show to talk about what came out of the summit, we'll hear from him in a bit. First, Japan Times news chief Kanako Takahara is going to let us know how Prime Minister Fumio Kishida performed as this year's host

Kanako Takahara thanks for coming back to Deep Dive.

Kanako Takahara  01:40 

Thanks, Shaun. 

Shaun McKenna  01:42

Kanako, last time you were on the show Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was experiencing a bit of a slump in the ratings. How's he doing now?

Kanako Takahara  01:48  

Well, he's doing a bit better. When I spoke to you last December, his numbers were in the low 30s. I think it was in December and January, the Kyodo poll had him around 33%, the support rate. But now it sits around 40%. Though, one newspaper poll had him topping 50% at the end of April. 

Shaun McKenna  02:14

Wow, what happened? 

Kanako Takahara  02:16

Well, during the maybe the five, six months since I last talked with you, I think he went to Ukraine in person. And then the government brought the COVID pandemic to kind of a close, mask wearing guidelines were eased and the COVID was downgraded. So people's lives were sort of going back to normal, like pre-pandemic. And he also mended ties with South Korea, there was this issue of wartime labor clouding the ties for the past few years. And now Kishida has met the South Korean President Yoon three times in the past two months or so. And he hasn't really taken a break when it comes to travel. So he went to Africa on a four-nation tour during the Golden week holidays, and then went to South Korea afterwards. So he's been quite busy. And on top of that, he also survived what seemed to be an attempted assassination. 

Shaun McKenna 03:23

OK, so he has been pretty busy for sure. Kishida hosted the leaders of the G7 nations in Hiroshima this month. Now, I know that whenever I have a dinner party, there's a lot of work involved and then after it's over, and everyone's gone home, and you have that moment where you just kind of sit on the sofa and are like, “Phew, it's done. I did it.” With the G7 over, do you think Kishida has been able to have that sofa moment?

Kanako Takahara  03:48  

Yeah, the summit went well. There were security concerns beforehand, because of that incident back in April, the assassination attempt, but that had more to do with the way politicians campaign in Japan. Like they're more vulnerable. They mingle with the crowd. They shake hands and everything. But for the Hiroshima summit, the security is pretty tight. It's very controlled. So there were no incidents.

Shaun McKenna  04:19  

Gotcha. You were in Hiroshima for that event. What did you see there?

Kanako Takahara  04:24  

I saw a lot of police officers. They were standing every 30 meters. When I walked from a hotel to a bus station three minutes away. I probably passed by at least two dozen police officers. Many schools were closed down for the duration of the summit, taxis were scarce, restaurants closed down early because people were asked to stay in.

Shaun McKenna  04:45  

Right. It seems, I mean, Hiroshima was also secure enough for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop by with transportation provided by a French military aircraft. How did his surprise appearance play in Japan?

Kanako Takahara  04:49  

Well, there was speculation that Zelenskyy might come to the Hiroshima summit in person for the past few months. But the government kept denying that, that's not going to happen, he's going to just attend it online. So that was the perception that the media had, reporters had, so it was pretty much surprised when there was like the breaking news, saying that the Ukrainian president is going to be attending the Hiroshima summit in person. And when Zelenskyy did arrive, and Kishida was photographed with him touring Hiroshima, the public seemed to respond favorably. So Kishida’s approval ratings went up in an NHK poll for one, and there was speculation of him calling an election while things are going well.

Shaun McKenna  05:49  

Now, a new survey by Kyodo News on Sunday said that over 60% of the public don't want to call an election. Tell me, is it just Kishida who is popular at the moment? Or is any of his popularity rubbing off on the LDP?

Kanako Takahara  06:02  

Well, it's hard to say, byelections in April, LDP got four out of five seats, and that was better than what media had initially thought. So that was good for LDP, but looking at the actual votes, some are very close races. So LDP support rate still remains flat for the past six months or so. So what's happening now is the support rate for Kishida is inching up a bit, but it's not translating into the support of LDP.

Shaun McKenna  06:38  

OK, so the first half of the year has been an eventful one for the Prime Minister, what's in store for the second half of the year.

Kanako Takahara  06:44  

Right now in the political center of Nagatacho, the sole focus is when and if the prime minister is going to call a snap election.

Shaun McKenna  06:55  

OK, this is based on the successes he's had with the G7 and these other things that have happened. 

Kanako Takahara  07:02  

So maybe it's a good idea to hold an election while the support rate is relatively high. So right now, the diet session ends on June 21. So technically, if he dissolves the Lower House, then a snap election could be held as early as July. So the speculation is that, is that going to happen or is he going to wait a bit more? And Kishida has always said, and that's always the case for any prime minister who has been asked this question, is that, “Are you going to dissolve the lower house?” He says he's not going to do that for now.

Shaun McKenna  07:44  

  1. And if he waits until autumn then he runs the risk of some kind of disaster happening during the summer.

Kanako Takahara  07:50  

Another scandal or we never know.

Shaun McKenna  07:54  

Yeah. OK. So that's going to be what you have your eyes on. Kanako Takahara thanks for stopping by Deep Dive.

Kanako Takahara  08:00  

Thanks, Shaun.

Shaun McKenna  08:09  

When former U.S. President Barack Obama attended the 2016 Ise-Shima G7 summit, he was still something of a celebrity in Japan. It was during that trip that he also accompanied Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Hiroshima, becoming the first sitting U.S. president to visit the city: A significant symbolic moment seeing as the US was the country that dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima in 1945. And three days later on Nagasaki. Obama didn't apologize on behalf of the United States at the time, and neither did President Joe Biden when he and the other G7 leaders visited Hiroshima for this year's summit. 

However, it wasn't Biden that Japan had its eyes on, a better parallel to Obama's visit in terms of sheer celebrity, was the surprise appearance of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On his first visit to Asia since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Japanese TV stations carried his motorcade live, and people in the streets were reportedly straining to try to get a glimpse of him. We discussed what Zelenskyy’s appearance meant for Kishida but what did it mean for Ukraine? With me to talk more about that is Japan Times Asia editor and defense correspondent Gabriel Dominguez. Gabriel, welcome back to Deep Dive.

Gabriel Dominguez  09:18  

Thanks, Shaun. Happy to be back.

Shaun McKenna  09:20  

Gabriel, Zelenskyy was originally scheduled to appear by video call. What did his in person appearance at the G7 summit achieve that a video called couldn't?

Gabriel Dominguez  09:29  

Well, first of all, I think it's important to mention that Ukraine was always going to be one of the key issues discussed at the summit. But once Zelenskyy’s in-person attendance was confirmed, it’s like all hell broke loose in the newsroom. I think it's fair to say that he became the focal point of the event from that moment. I mean, almost every move he made was televised, including his arrival at Hiroshima Airport, which was broadcast live on many Japanese TV channels. From there, he just got right to business. I mean, he was holding talks with several leaders, including Kishida, U.S. President Biden, Indian Prime Minister Modi, French President Macron, and so on, so forth. But in my view, his top performance came on the final day of the summit, where he attended the last two sessions, one of which was on the war in Ukraine itself, and the other on world peace. Out of that came a readout from the first session quoting because she does say that the G7 were united in providing assistance to Ukraine to, quote unquote, the fullest extent necessary.

Shaun McKenna  10:32  

Hiroshima is a city that was flattened by a nuclear weapon and then rebuilt itself. Zelenskyy’s country is currently under assault, and there is concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. More recently, Russia announced it would be stationing such weapons in neighboring Belarus. Given that situation, do we know what Zelenskyy's impressions of his visit to Hiroshima were?

Gabriel Dominguez  10:56  

I think we do, Zelenskyy was tweeting throughout the event. So everyone pretty much knew what he was thinking on that front. One of the tweets that I think best summarized his message, said, quote, “the more we'll work together, the less likely anyone else in the world will follow thrushes insane path,” end quote. So I think his visit to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial was in this kind of context. It was a real highlight of his trip. He joined Kishida in laying a bouquet of flowers tied with blue and yellow ribbons, which are the colors of Ukraine's flag below the cenotaph. So this was a very, very symbolic move. And he also toured the Peace Memorial Museum, which documents the aftermath of the atomic bomb that was dropped on the city in 1945. So the visit must have had a real deep effect on him. So much so that he compared the devastation in his country to that of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Also, I think the visuals were important. I mean, frankly speaking, the G7 it's also a great chance for photo ops. And Zelenskyy at the Hiroshima Memorial — it was a scene that was just full of symbolism. And to refer back to your question, this is something he definitely would not have been able to do had he only attended via videoconference.

Shaun McKenna  12:15  

You mentioned the tweet Zelenskyy wrote about “the more we all work together, the less likely anyone else in the world will follow Russia's insane path.” Am I right in thinking that this may have been a message from the G7 through Zelenskyy to China? Am I overthinking this?

Gabriel Dominguez  12:31  

I think to some extent, it may apply to China. But Zelenskyy has so far been careful not to anger Beijing. I think he knows that China could play a key role in persuading Russia to come to the negotiating table. So I think he's definitely interested in keeping communication lines open with Beijing. This is why the tweet, in my view, was mainly a reference to countries coming together to condemn Russian aggression and stand up for the international rules-based order rather than throwing shade at China. If you get what I mean.

Shaun McKenna  13:03  

Yeah. Our colleague Elizabeth Beatty attended the G7 financial ministers meeting and told us that topics under discussion there were very much intertwined with hot button political issues. But at that meet the parties involved were a bit reluctant to mention China. Did China get called out at the main summit in Hiroshima?

Gabriel Dominguez  13:21  

Oh, it definitely got called out by name. That happened, the final statement, especially with the G7 issued a nine-point approach to de-risk their economies from China. I mean, they also tried to keep the door open to cooperate with China on major global issues such as climate change and food security. But, I mean, the list of concerns was there. You see, one of the issues here is that most of the G7 members agree that China presents a challenge to the rules-based order. At the same time, they also see Beijing as an important trade partner. So they do not necessarily want to decouple their economies despite the growing tensions. But like I mentioned the statement wasn't necessarily entirely conciliatory. The group repeated its list of grievances, including warnings over Beijing's militarization activities, expansive maritime claims in the South and East China Seas. And they also accused China of economic coercion and not playing by international rules.

Shaun McKenna  14:24  

I've heard this term economic coercion used a lot recently. What's an example of that?

Gabriel Dominguez  14:30  

Um, let's say, as a country, you take action that goes against China's political goals. Maybe you support Taiwan in a way that recognizes the island's autonomy. Then in such a case, China might retaliate by imposing tariffs on your goods or use economic means of different kinds to punish you. But you know, other countries do this as well, any nation that is in a position of power could or is likely to follow a similar approach to bring others in line. This is why you hear that there's so many trade disputes at the World Trade Organization. So this final statement made Beijing furious with China's foreign ministry saying that the G7 used the summit to quote unquote, smear and attack China and interfere in its internal affairs. So in a way that the summit didn't really help clear the air between the two sides.

Shaun McKenna  15:24  

Right. What has changed with regards to issues that you are keeping an eye on following the G7 meeting?

Gabriel Dominguez  15:33  

Well, we didn't solve everything. But actually no, I mean, I think relations between China and the U.S. are still going downhill. The two sides continuing to engage in economic warfare, particularly as China resents Western efforts to try and slow down its rise as a tech and military power. In fact, Beijing keeps complaining about Washington trying to contain its rise. Also, we're going to continue to see multiple security alliances either taking shape or consolidating in the region, many of which are believed to be aimed at countering China. And last but not least, we see that the issue of nuclear threats is coming to the forefront of a lot of conversations in a way that, you know, it hasn't been the case since the Cold War. You mentioned earlier, but Belarus recently agreed to house Russian nuclear weapons in its territory. However, you can't forget the fact that the biggest nuclear arsenal is actually in the hands of the G7 — just think of the U.S., France and Britain. And then China is reported to be increasing its arsenal. What I'm trying to say here is that when you look at the whole picture, I think Kishida hopes for denuclearization will be a lot harder to realize than we think.

Shaun McKenna  16:54  

Another part of these G7 summits are the many side meetings that go on. One of the reasons for the particular side meetings we saw in Hiroshima was due to the fact that President Joe Biden had come to Japan thinking he was going to travel to two other countries in Asia afterward. One was a trip to Papua New Guinea that the White House was touting as historic, and the other was a stop in Australia to meet with the other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Due to debt ceiling negotiations back home, Biden had to limit his tour to Hiroshima, and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken went to Papua New Guinea to sign a bilateral defense agreement without him. 

Gabriel, I want to get your take on the broader issues surrounding the Papua New Guinea visit in a moment, but first, let's talk about the Quad, which instead of happening in Australia took place on the sidelines of Hiroshima. Can you remind our listeners of who the Quad is and what its purpose is?

Gabriel Dominguez  17:44  

Sure. So the quad began as a loose partnership between India, Japan, Australia and the U.S. This happened after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami when the four countries came together to provide humanitarian and disaster relief. So the group was formalized three years later in 2007 under the leadership of then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But it kept a relatively low profile, you might say until about 2017, when it was resurrected amid concerns about China's expanding influence in the region.

Shaun McKenna  18:20  

China isn't too happy about the quad. I think they've described it as an Indo-Pacific NATO. Can you tell us why China isn't thrilled with the grouping?

Gabriel Dominguez  18:29  

That's because the resurgence of the Quad is often seen as a counterweight to Chinese expansion in the region, be it economic, diplomatic or military. Let's look at it this way, although India is not allied to any of the other three countries and the group, both Japan and Australia are U.S. allies. And the Quad is ramping up military cooperation to defend the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is something that obviously angers China. So what does this mean? It means they're working together to, for example, monitor Chinese maritime activities in the region. Last year, for instance, they launched a maritime surveillance plan designed to enable countries in the region to track both illegal fishing and incursions by Chinese vessels in real time. Another important job of the group is to focus on making sure the West maintains close ties with the small but strategically important island countries in the Indo-Pacific. For instance, Solomon Islands has been at the center of geopolitical competition in the region. After it signed a wide-reaching security pact with China in April last year. 

Shaun McKenna  19:40  

Both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese were in Hiroshima and took part in the Quad meet up. Were there any big takeaways from that?

Gabriel Dominguez  19:51  

Yes, but let me say first that the Quad meeting in Hiroshima was understandably much shorter than it would have been had taken place in Australia. This is, for obvious reasons, you know, the agenda, the G7 was very, very busy. I think they met for a little over half an hour compared to the several hours they would have had to discuss these issues in Australia. Nevertheless, the fact that they met, and that they managed to release a full joint statement indicates to me that they not only value this partnership, the quad partnership, but are also aligned in what they want to achieve. 

Shaun McKenna  20:30  

OK, so what did come out of it?

Gabriel Dominguez  20:32  

Surprisingly, most of the takeaways from the summit were not related to military cooperation but rather measures to enhance connectivity and infrastructure, including, say undersea cables and communication networks in the Pacific, where, as already mentioned, the Quad is competing directly with China for influence. Actually, a key indicator of the growing competition is the fact that they stressed repeatedly that they have this need to maintain a region free from coercion that is not dominated by any single country. In my view, this is a veiled swipe at China.

Shaun McKenna  21:08  

The cancellation of Biden's Papua New Guinea visit was considered unfortunate. Not only does the island nation feature a strategic location in the Pacific, but it's also considered to be a member of the Global South, can you tell us why the Global South has emerged as such a player in recent years.

Gabriel Dominguez  21:26  

To give you a broader perspective, here, the term “Global South” refers to a loose grouping of roughly 100 nations, mainly in the southern hemisphere. Most of them are developing or emerging countries. And they're not really aligned with any major power. However, the G7 does not use this term. I think it's important to point that out, reportedly, because it may give the impression of lumping together countries that have diverse circumstances. Instead, they prefer to use terms such as “regional” or “willing” or “like-minded” partners, when referring to these countries, especially if they want to cooperate with them. And because these countries prioritize economic development, they want to cultivate close ties with both Washington and Beijing. And so they don't really want to take sides in this geopolitical context. In other words, they don't see a zero-sum strategy as beneficial. And they prefer to do business with both sides. Also, I wanted to say here that while many of these countries view the U.S. as their top security partner, China is de facto already their top trading partner. So they wouldn't like to jeopardize these ties with China for geopolitical reasons. The only question for me here is how long can they actually keep performing this delicate balancing act as ties between the U.S. and China worsen?

Shaun McKenna  22:55  

On the topic of the Global South, this weekend sees a gathering of the BRICS group of emerging economies in South Africa, that acronym standing for Brazil, Russia, India, and China and South Africa. Will you be following what comes out of the BRICS meet? And is it an issue that Russia and China will be present and not any members of the G7?

Gabriel Dominguez  23:15  

Well, the BRICS are less aligned politically than the G7, which is clearly led by the U.S. But I don't think the BRICS group is about being for or against either Washington or Beijing, but rather, they're about finding ways to make their voices and those of other Global South countries better heard and their interests better represented internationally. Let's keep in mind that these countries already have a larger collective GDP based on purchasing power parity than the G7. So they want to have a greater say in international affairs. They're trying to position themselves as representatives of the Global South countries and provide an alternative economic model compared to that of the of the G7.

Shaun McKenna  24:02  

Can they do that? Is this weekend's meeting something that might result in something noteworthy?

Gabriel Dominguez  24:07  

Yeah, I think it will be important. For the first time in over a decade, the bloc is considering increasing the number of its members. And according to South Africa's ambassador to BRICS, who I had the opportunity to interview, at least 20 countries have submitted both formal and informal applications to join the group. This includes countries such as Egypt, Nigeria, Mexico, Iran, Indonesia, Turkey, many others, we're talking here about major players in the Global South. And I think it’ll also be important because another topic on the agenda will be increasing trade between the members in local currencies. This is important because the country's want to reduce both the transaction costs and the political risks of trading too much in foreign currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar. And as you know, Russia was sanctioned, and a lot of countries cannot use the U.S. dollar to do business with Russia. And this is also something that might affect China in the future, should Beijing ever come under U.S. sanctions.

Shaun McKenna  25:16  

So in a sense, if they do achieve this kind of foreign currencies goal? Isn't that furthering a political goal for both Russia and China?

Gabriel Dominguez  25:25  

This furthers a political goal for everyone who wants to do trade with Russia and China and probably with other countries. I mean, essentially, what the ambassador told me was, why should first and foremost, a country like the U.S., which is a third party, benefit from, say, South Africa and Brazil doing trade? Why should basically a percentage of the trade go to the U.S. just because they're using the dollar as a trading currency? So that's one key aspect they want to tackle. And the other is, of course, that, you know, while if the U.S. were to sanction China, this doesn't necessarily mean that a country like Brazil or South Africa would like to stop doing business with China. So in that case, to prevent this from happening, if they agreed, for instance, on using the yuan as a currency, this trade would not be affected.

Shaun McKenna  26:23  

Gotcha. Gabriel Dominguez, thanks for coming on Deep Dive.

Gabriel Dominguez  26:27  

Sure. Thanks for having me.

Shaun McKenna  26:32  

My thanks again to Gabriel Dominguez and Kanako Takahara for coming on this week's show. For more politics coverage and G7 analysis head to japantimes.co.jp. Elsewhere in The Japan Times this week, fresh off hosting the G7 in Hiroshima, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida returned to Tokyo and had to sack his eldest son, Shotaro, after pictures of inappropriate behavior came to light Shotaro Kishida landed a job as his father's political secretary last October, a controversial hire that drew accusations of nepotism. The pictures were taken at a party Shotaro hosted for relatives in areas of the Prime Minister's official residence with symbolic importance, basically places the family really shouldn't have been fooling around. And this wasn't Shotaro’s first strike. 

The picture incident came less than four months after he was reported to have used official vehicles to go shopping during his father's diplomatic tour of France, the U.K. and Canada. Also in the news officials are on high alert after a small outbreak of measles was detected in Ibaraki Prefecture in Tokyo. Measles is incredibly contagious, and the latest three cases appear to have spread among three strangers who are riding the same shinkansen for at least three hours. Symptoms start out as a fever, cough and a runny nose. A few days later, temperatures rise, often exceeding 39 degrees Celsius, and a rash develops. So if you haven't got your measles shot then keep an eye on what's developing at The Japan Times website. 

Deep Dive is produced by Dave Cortez. The outgoing song is by Oscar Boyd, and our theme song is by the Japanese musician LLLL. Until next time, I'm Shaun McKenna, podtsukaresama.