It’s the battle that will define the U.S. oil market this decade.

On one side, the combination of rising sales of electric vehicles, more efficient conventional cars, and the impact of working-from-home is pushing down gasoline demand; on the other, the ever-growing popularity of plastics combined with a growing population is boosting consumption of petrochemicals.

In short, one can call it "Tesla against the plastic industry.” If Tesla and its electric-vehicle rivals win the battle, oil demand will peak soon, helping to meet global climate change goals by reducing consumption of fossil fuels. For now, however, plastics have the upper hand, keeping overall oil demand growing.