Two weeks ago, I quoted Mark Twain: “History does not repeat itself but sometimes it rhymes.”

Although history may look like it repeats, in fact, it does not. Historical analogies, however, may help us appreciate the true meaning of current events from a new perspective so that we can get a better sense of the direction we are actually headed in.

I also stated in my column that China in the 2020s is making a series of serious strategic mistakes similar to the ones Japan made in the 1930s. A Chinese friend of mine rebutted my argument. He said, “The Chinese people are much smarter than the Japanese and Beijing will never make such stupid mistakes.” I sincerely hope he is right.

The worst kind of mistake in politics, as I reiterated to him, is a fatal mistake that is not only irreversible, but is also extremely detrimental to the nation. Fatal mistakes often result from bad intuition, coincidences or misjudgments. Politicians, including U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, often make such strategic mistakes either in turns or in series.

My Chinese friend, so proud, nationalistic and infallible, was not convinced. I wondered if the Japanese youth during the 1930s — my father’s generation — who became more arrogant and patriotic during World War II, were as proud and fanatical as my Chinese friend. All of which made me ponder about why and the importance of history rhyming in East Asia.

Affluence and arrogance

Noteworthy is the fact that Japan became a creditor nation due to the rapid increase in international trade during World War I. In the 1920s, believe it or not, Japan was one of the safest and most lucrative investment destinations for the United States. Japan’s big cities spawned tens of thousands of nouveau riche who enjoyed material prosperity.

A proud Japan, during the 1920s, also became aware that it was now a "first-class nation" in the then-world community. Some of the nation's political leaders at the time, reflecting the growing nationalistic mood among the ordinary people, became increasingly arrogant and self-centered when it came to international affairs. The era of affluence, however, did not last long.

Soon after the end of World War I, an era of "chronic recession" started. The post-war economic bubble ended and the disparity between urban and rural areas in Japan increased. The rural areas experienced much hardship with many smart, desperate and reform-minded second and third sons of peasants joining the Imperial armed forces.

The 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake exacerbated such economic difficulties. In 1927, financial panic struck and the number of nonperforming loans exploded, leading to unprecedented financial instability in Japan. That was when supernationalistic elite military officers became convinced that something must be done to correct the situation.

War and international isolation

The Great Depression of 1929, which devastated the nation’s economy, was a turning point. The Manchurian Incident of 1931 led to Japan’s international isolation and confrontation with the U.S. The League of Nations entrusted a commission headed by British politician and the second Earl of Lytton, Victor Bulwer-Lytton, to evaluate the incident.

The Lytton Report concluded that Japan was the aggressor, had wrongfully invaded Manchuria and that it should be returned to the Chinese, recommending that the state of Manchukuo should not be recognized. The League of Nations General Assembly adopted the report and Japan, to my regret, immediately quit the body. Tokyo’s isolation worsened.

In 1937, the Sino-Japanese War broke out, although Tokyo did not call it a war. In 1940, the Tripartite Pact between Japan, Germany and Italy was signed, which mutually recognized and respected "the leadership role of each party in constructing a new international order in Europe and Great East Asia.”

In June 1941, war broke out between Germany and the Soviet Union. Japan, taking advantage of the conflict, sent troops to occupy French Indochina. This Japanese military adventure must have convinced American and British political leaders that Tokyo had finally crossed a red line.

Rhyming history

In November 1941, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull sent a note to Tokyo demanding Japan’s total withdrawal from China. Then-Prime Minister Hideki Tojo considered the Hull Note as an ultimatum and finally decided to go to war. Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor took place on Dec. 8, 1941, Tokyo time.

Does history rhyme? Sure, it does. World War I for Japan was the equivalent of the American “War on Terror” in the Middle East. China benefited most from the power vacuum in East Asia that resulted from Washington's change of focus. Three decades of economic boom in China made the Chinese rich and arrogant. It is only a matter of time before the economic bubble in China will exacerbate the economic gap between the cities and rural areas.

The creation of man-made islands in the South China Sea by China is the equivalent of Japan's 1931 Manchurian Incident. The judgment of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration Tribunal, which ruled that China's "nine-dash line" has no lawful foundation, was the contemporary version of the Lytton Commission report on the events in Manchuria.

The COVID-19 pandemic for China resembles what the Great Kanto Earthquake meant for Japan. China’s recent reliance on strengthened Sino-Russian ties is as strategically hollow as the Japan-Germany-Italy Tripartite Pact. The war between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union as it pertained to Imperial Japan was what the Ukraine war is now for China — and the list goes on.

From the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, the conflict in Ukraine, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan to Chinese military exercises near the island, misjudgments by policymakers are being repeated and creating unfortunate new normals.

Like in the 1930s, the post-1945 era of internationalism with its democracies and free markets is stalling. Allow me President Xi to humbly suggest that it is time for you to change China’s external policies because only you in your third term can do the right thing for China.

Kuni Miyake is president of the Foreign Policy Institute and research director at Canon Institute for Global Studies. A former career diplomat, he also serves as a special adviser to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Japanese government.