Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are spiking in the wake of the visit this week of Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to Taiwan.

Her visit was not without precedent nor did it signal a shift in U.S. policy toward China. The Beijing government is furious nevertheless, denouncing the visit in strident language and promising countermeasures to ensure that no one gets the wrong idea.

The Chinese leadership is smart enough to know that a precipitous, direct move against Taiwan is unwise and dangerous. Still, the possibility of an accident or miscalculation remains palpable. Concerned governments should insist that Beijing remain calm, desist from destabilizing activities and continue their efforts to strengthen their own defenses to be prepared for any contingency.

Pelosi was coy in the run-up to her trip. News leaked of a visit but there was no confirmation of a stopover during an Asia tour that would take her and her six-person bipartisan delegation to Singapore, Japan and South Korea, among other destinations. A visit by the speaker of the House, the third highest ranking U.S. official, was not unprecedented: Newt Gingrich did so in 1997.

The Biden administration was in a bind. The president himself said that he didn’t think a stop was a good idea, while he reportedly noted that Congress is an equal and sovereign branch of government. Well aware of Chinese sensitivities, the administration also did not want to give China an excuse to take action.

Pelosi, a longtime critic of the Chinese government, had her own plans. She arrived in Taiwan Tuesday evening on a U.S. government plane, staying overnight and then embarking on a full, public and high-level set of meetings, including a televised one with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. Her message has been clear and simple.

The visit, she said upon arriving in Taipei, “honors America's unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan's vibrant democracy,” a stand that is “more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.” Standing next to Tsai, Pelosi explained that her stopover is intended to make “unequivocally clear” that the U.S, has no intention of abandoning Taiwan, “a leader in governance,” a “leader in peace, security and economic dynamism” and a “vibrant, robust democracy.”

While emphasizing that the U.S. opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo, “We come in friendship to Taiwan, we come in peace to the region.”

China was unimpressed. Consistent with its call for reunification of the island with the mainland and the belief that Taiwan is “a renegade province,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the U.S. was stirring up trouble, “hollowing out” its “one China” policy and “has become the ‘biggest destroyer’ of peace across the Taiwan Strait and for regional stability.” The Foreign Ministry condemned the visit for having “a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations and sends a seriously wrong signal to the separatist forces for 'Taiwan independence.'”

More worrying than the words were the actions. Before the visit, several Taiwan government websites, including the presidential office, the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the website of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport were hit by cyberattacks that took them offline. China also said that it would cut off more than 100 Taiwanese exporters of food items.

More ominous were the military movements. Chinese media reported that its fighter jets had crossed the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait. After Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, China announced that it would conduct joint air and sea exercises, including live-fire drills in six locations surrounding the island in the days immediately following her visit.

A dozen missiles were launched the day after she departed and the Japanese government said that five landed in its exclusive economic zone, a first. The Tokyo government rightly protested to Beijing, but China rejected the charge.

U.S. officials said the Chinese response was “right in line with what was anticipated,” adding that the U.S. is “prepared to manage what Beijing chooses to do” and that the Biden administration “will continue to support Taiwan, defend a free and open Indo-Pacific and seek to maintain communication” with China.

The people of Taiwan were supportive of the visit although there were some protests at Pelosi’s hotel. The meetings with and welcome from the island government’s most senior officials, including President Tsai, are proof that the speaker was a welcome guest.

We must be prepared for sustained and increasing tension in the Taiwan Strait. This will become the new normal. Chinese military operations have been accelerating for some time and the mainland government increasingly assertive about its claims to the island. The all-important 20th Chinese Communist Party Central Congress, scheduled for this fall and at which President Xi Jinping is expected to win an unprecedented third term, is another milestone and virtually obliges the Chinese leadership to project strength.

That does not mean that a military confrontation is imminent. But with the vast number of military assets in the region, the potential for an accident is high and rising.

Friends of Taiwan and supporters of a rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific must show their support for Pelosi’s visit and confirm that a descent into crisis is China’s choice.

U.S. policy and that of the entire region toward Taiwan has not changed. We are all aware of Chinese concerns, but that does not mean we should acquiesce to intimidation, threats against Taiwan and infringements on the rights of its people. That requires a stiff diplomatic spine and strengthening our defenses.

We want to see a reduction in tensions but we must not forget who has created this crisis.

The Japan Times Editorial Board