The latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that the American economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product growth.
That accords with a popular definition of a recession. But economists have noted that any official declaration of a U.S. recession must come instead from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which carefully assesses various monthly macroeconomic indicators observed over extended periods.
Given the intensity of this debate in the media, one might think that the popular and official assessments often contradict each other. But that is not the case. Since 1948, and prior to the current episode, BEA data on real GDP reveal 10 periods with two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth — in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1982, 1991, 2009 and 2020 — all of which correspond to the NBER’s eventual declaration of a recession.