The world is on the brink of a food crisis that could result in starvation for millions, unrest and mass migrations.

The immediate cause of this impending catastrophe is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting cutoff of their vital exports. That is not the entire story, however. Structural factors have exacerbated the shortages. All must be addressed to re-establish food security for those who will suffer despite no fault of their own. Most immediately, however, wealthy nations must accelerate efforts to get food into the hands of hungry populations around the world.

Prior to the invasion, Ukraine and Russia were critical food exporters. As Hans-Werner Sinn detailed in The Japan Times earlier this week, "Ukraine accounted for 10% of global exports of wheat, 13% of barley, more than 50% of sunflower oil, 5% of rapeseed oil and 15% of corn." By one estimate, Russia and Ukraine accounted for 12% of all traded food calories; together they produce about 30% of global wheat exports. In addition, Russia is the world’s largest producer of fertilizer.

Production disruptions — or the threat of such interruptions — has pushed the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization’s global FAO food price index 30% higher year on year and 62% higher than in 2020 on average. The head of the World Food Program warns that 323 million people are “marching toward starvation,” while the Red Cross anticipates that rising food prices will mean that 47 million people face acute hunger.

If the prospect of mass starvation in distant countries is not horrific enough to motivate the world to take action, self-interest should. Hunger frequently leads to mass protest and instability. The Arab Spring was set off by skyrocketing food prices. Those conflagrations are seldom contained. It is estimated that every 1% increase in hunger leads to a 2% increase in migration.

The cause of this dangerous situation rests squarely on the shoulders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The invasion of Ukraine is expected to cause a one-third reduction in its wheat production. A Russian naval blockade has prevented crops from being shipped; reportedly some 20 million tons of wheat is trapped in silos or on ships that cannot reach foreign markets. Grain storage facilities have been targeted for attack. There are reports of grain being stolen. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was succinct: “The Kremlin is exporting starvation and suffering well beyond Ukraine’s borders.”

Putin counters that the West is to blame. He insists that the Western sanctions campaign prevents Russia from exporting its food and fertilizer. He is being disingenuous and trying to deflect attention for the many cruelties of his war.

The loss of those two suppliers is enough to cause a global crisis. The shortages have been exacerbated, however, by other policies and practices. For example, land once used to grow food is increasingly devoted to the production of biofuels. It is estimated that 4% of the world’s agricultural land is used for growing biofuels and 40% of U.S. corn production is used to make ethanol. Rising fuel prices have sparked a frantic search for alternative energy sources and those crops are increasingly attractive.

The prospect of shortages has prompted some food exporters to hoard their supplies. A growing number of governments have cut off exports of staples like grains and cooking oil. The decision by Indonesia, the world’s leading exporter of palm oil, to restrict shipments means that more than 40% of international vegetable oil sales are now off-limits. It is estimated that the war in Ukraine has prompted 23 countries to embrace food protectionism.

Then there is the spiraling inflation that is pushing up food prices, imperiling the lives of the world’s poorest citizens. The World Bank reckons that already nearly 700 million people live in extreme poverty, or under ¥250 ($1.86) a day. For this swath of humanity, even tiny increases in the cost of food is life threatening.

There are a number of steps that can be taken to ease this crisis. The first and most obvious is for Putin to quit holding the world hostage to his imperial dreams, to end the invasion or, at the very least, to allow Ukraine to resume shipments of grain and other food supplies. Even if Black Sea ports remain closed, alternative export routes should be opened as part of humanitarian aid and relief.

Governments that have the mistaken impression that food protectionism provides them greater security need to be disabused of that idea. Local agricultural production has to increase. That means turning to new crops, perhaps genetically modified ones. And more has to be done to combat soil erosion and the reliance on fertilizer imports must also be reduced.

Last month, the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations launched, with the World Bank, the Global Alliance for Food Security to “catalyze an immediate and concerted response to the unfolding global hunger crisis.” This effort will accelerate and Japan should be ready to push it further when it takes the chair of the G7 next year.

Support must also be given to the other international organizations that have long fought hunger and promoted agricultural production, like the World Food Program, like the International Fund for Agricultural Development and like the Food and Agriculture Organization. They are on the front lines of the battle to prevent the Ukrainian crisis from becoming a global humanitarian catastrophe.

The Japan Times Editorial Board