The government's 2009 white paper on defense details recent military moves by China and North Korea. Japan must closely watch the situation in Northeast Asia and carefully make the necessary adjustments to create an environment that will reduce the chances of confrontation, military or political.

With regard to China, "Defense of Japan 2009" focuses on China's interest in possessing an aircraft carrier as well as the modernization of its air force and navy to protect its sea lanes and interests in the ocean.

It pays particular attention to the fact that, for the first time, a Chinese flotilla of four naval ships sailed into the Pacific Ocean through the Tsugaru Strait between Honshu and Hokkaido in October 2008, and then passed between Okinawa and Miyako islands in November; and that a Chinese survey ship entered Japanese territorial waters near the Senkaku islets in December.

The report stresses that China has started to acquire more military capabilities than necessary to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence and that the scope of its capabilities appears to be expanding beyond waters near China. It criticizes 21 straight years of two-digit growth in China's defense budget for lacking transparency.

The white paper cites North Korea's nuclear weapons programs and its missiles as a great threat to Japan. It points to the possibility that the North is not only lengthening the range of its missiles but also improving their accuracy and attitude control. It does not rule out the possibility that North Korea will downsize nuclear weapons for use as warheads in a relatively short time.

It also mentions the possibility that, given North Korean leader Kim Jung Il's reported ill health, the power structure of the North may change, destabilizing the regime in the near future.

The government will consider these findings in writing a new National Defense Program Outline for fiscal 2010-2014. Japan will need a strong will to stay prepared to defend itself, but its approach should be coolheaded and based on the defense-only policy and the nonnuclear principle.