Back in autumn, there were reports that some people were betting on when war would start. Now that it's begun, it's worthwhile thinking about how it might end. Here are some thoughts on five possible outcomes, from worst to best, and the likelihood of each:
* Nuclear Armageddon with over a billion casualties and a large part of the Earth left uninhabitable. This scenario assumes case two, listed below, and that the war triggers either an attack by North Korea on the South or a nuclear attack on U.S. soil, leading Washington to launch a massive counterattack on Pakistan, Russia and whatever other parties they suspect of having provided the means. Probability: 1 percent.
* Major regional conflict extending over decades, starting with war between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds; attempted Israeli ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians to Jordan; popular democratic revolutions in Jordan, Egypt and Yemen leading to militant Islamist takeovers; a Shiite uprising in South Iraq leading to an American war with Iran; and an American attempt at regime change in Syria, leading to civil war in that country with Sunnis rising up to massacre the Alawites and other minorities associated with the current regime. The U.S. involvement in these events exacts a tremendous cost in blood and treasure, leaving China and the European Union as the world's major powers after 20 years. Probability: 30 percent.