The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition party Nippon Ishin no Kai may be looking to put their differences aside to cooperate on ensuring the fiscal 2025 budget gets passed.
For Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the first priority is to secure a majority of votes for the 2025 budget, which is now being debated and must be passed by both houses of parliament by March 31. Doing so will require the votes of at least one opposition party.
For the Osaka-centric Nippon Ishin, the challenge is to get the LDP to secure free high school education, its key policy goal, and ensure as much central government support as possible for the financially troubled Osaka Kansai Expo, which opens on April 13.
Nippon Ishin’s leadership structure is unique among Japan’s political parties. Lower House veteran Seiji Maehara and Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura both lead the party. While Yoshimura is particularly concerned about a successful expo, Maehara is pushing the government to approve a bill allowing free high school education beginning in April.
The party says their free education proposal would cost ¥600 billion. By comparison, the opposition Democratic Party for the People’s push to raise the ¥1.03 million income tax-free threshold to ¥1.78 million could result in a ¥7 trillion to ¥8 trillion tax decrease, according to government estimates, and faces opposition within the LDP.
However, Osaka-based freelance journalist Isao Kinoshita, who has decades of experience covering Nippon Ishin, says that April is probably too ambitious a start date.
“It's true the LDP thinks Nippon Ishin’s proposal to make high school tuition costs free, including for private schools, would be cheaper than the DPP plan. However, that would require a change in the law, so I think the effort to increase school attendance support funds is more realistic,” he said.
Even that kind of a compromise might prove politically beneficial to Nippon Ishin in Osaka prefecture, which is already using a large part of its budget to fund a program that provides free education, regardless of income. Central government funds for boosting local school attendance would help with the prefecture’s financial burden and thus help Osaka Ishin no Kai, Nippon Ishin’s local Osaka branch.
Then there's the expo. The national government, local Osaka authorities, and the business community are each responsible for one-third of the costs. But with ticket sales slow and costs rising, there is growing concern the event will end up in the red and become a political liability, especially for Nippon Ishin and its Osaka base.
Kinoshita notes the national government's share of expo security costs increased by ¥5.5 billion at the end of last year, and PR-related costs also increased by ¥2.9 billion. This comes after expo construction costs nearly doubled to ¥235 billion, and there are worries about whether they will rise further.
“Most expo operating costs are supposed to be covered by ticket sales. But it’s not yet decided how any deficit burden would be covered (by the national government, local governments, and the business community). So Nippon Ishin has no choice but to strengthen its stance of cooperation with Ishiba," Kinoshita said.
Aware of concerns surrounding the expo, Ishiba said Tuesday the central government was prepared to step up its efforts to attract visitors.
“This is not just a matter for Osaka Prefecture or the city of Osaka. The Japanese government as a whole is committed to doing everything it can to ensure the success of the event,” Ishiba said.
Another factor that may play a part in any LDP-Nippon Ishin cooperation on the budget could be Maehara’s relationship with Ishiba. Though political opponents, they are on good terms, both as politicians well versed in national security and as train lovers. Maehara became Nippon Ishin’s parliamentary leader in December after Yoshimura was elected as overall leader.
“Yoshimura chose Maehara because he was hoping for a connection with the current mainstream of the LDP, which he does not have, and in particular, a connection with Prime Minister Ishiba,” Kinoshita said.
As intense debate on the budget continues, however, it remains to be seen whether good personal connections and shared concerns will be enough for the parties to work together on getting it passed.
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