Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's strategy of a surprise battle, by calling a snap election shortly after taking office, seemingly backfired on Sunday, with early media polls showing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition suffering its worst results since returning to power in 2012.
But the fact that opposition parties failed to form a united front in many battleground districts and their indistinguishable economic policies compared with those of the ruling coalition might have cushioned some of the damage for the LDP and Komeito.
Ishiba, who is also LDP president, dissolved the Lower House only eight days after assuming office on Oct. 1, setting a postwar record for the shortest interval between a new prime minister taking office and the dissolution of the Lower House, which leads to a general election.
The move has been widely interpreted as a strategy to attain victory by leveraging the initial high approval rates of a new prime minister — the “honeymoon phase.”
But this time, it appears to have not worked out so well.
Ishiba’s backtracking on many of his previously touted policies left the electorate with less information to base their votes on, a situation exacerbated by the excessively short window. The LDP's slush funds scandal also heightened public skepticism of the party, leading to some voters staying away from the ballot box.
“They (the voters) see the ruling party as tainted by corruption, while the opposition remains divided and unable to present a united front. This could result in many voters feeling that voting is pointless and ultimately choosing not to participate at all,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo.
Many argue that a low voter turnout has historically benefited the LDP, as it would put more weight on the votes from the party’s core support base that it has always managed to mobilize.
The voter turnout for single-member districts in the Lower House election was approximately 53.11%, projected to be lower than the previous election, according to Jiji Press estimates.
In this election, however, that support base appears to have shattered, especially among the wealthy and middle-income earners who are likely more focused on stock prices and economic policies that the government pursues, said Hanako Ohmura, a professor at Kyoto University who specializes in public opinion and voting behavior.
“From the moment Ishiba won the party leadership, there was already an expectation that macroeconomic indicators might worsen,” she said, adding that concerns about potential policy changes under the prime minister, such as taxation on income from financial instruments such as stocks, might have led to some erosion of support from the LDP’s core support base.
During the campaign, the opposition heavily criticized the LDP’s handling of its members’ involvement in the slush funds scandal, especially after a report emerged about the ruling party handing out ¥20 million ($131,300) to local chapters led by candidates who were denied official party endorsement over their involvement in the scandal.
But when it comes to economic policies, the opposition failed to draw a clear difference between theirs and those of the LDP-Komeito coalition. This was made worse by fewer opportunities for them to disseminate information on such policies during the short campaign period. For instance, both sides are promoting support for low-income groups and enhancements in child-rearing policies, but there’s little clarity on how they differ.
One area of distinction between the two sides is the reduction of the consumption tax, with parties such as the Democratic Party for the People, Reiwa Shinsengumi and the Japanese Communist Party advocating cuts, and other major parties, including the LDP and Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, not addressing the issue.
“While the consumption tax was a point of contention, the overall economic policies appear quite similar across the board,” Uchiyama said. “I think many people feel unclear on what the real differences are, leading to an ‘I don’t know who to vote for’ sentiment among voters.”
The snap election resulted in logistical problems in several municipalities, where local election officials scrambled to print and mail out tickets for entering polling stations to registered voters. While the ticket isn’t required for early voting, many voters were unaware of that due to insufficient information.
The number of voting stations also decreased by over 1,000 nationwide, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
While the election featured a record number of 314 female candidates, accounting for 23.36% of the total, it still fell short of the government’s goal of 35% by 2025.
Ishiba’s Cabinet, with only two women, may have also been an issue among voters who value gender equality, Ohmura said.
“With limited information on what to base their votes on, it’s understandable that enthusiasm to vote has been dampened,” Ohmura said. “We’re seeing a trend of dissatisfaction with Ishiba and even defections among supporters of the ruling party.”
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