The upcoming Oct. 27 general election presents the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), the largest opposition party in parliament, with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to present itself as a credible alternative to the scandal-tainted Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the eyes of the voters.
However, despite the LDP’s fumbling over its handling of a slush funds scandal, the CDP still faces deep-rooted doubts over its ability to govern, and the momentum for a change in government has remained sluggish.
The party’s newly appointed leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, appears wary of unwarranted optimism.
He has refrained from setting a specific target in terms of the number of seats to win in the election, underscoring only how his party should strive to deny the ruling coalition a majority in the Lower House.
“I don’t think that’s an unrealistic goal,” Noda said in a recent interview with The Japan Times and other media outlets. “If that happens, the political landscape will change dramatically.”
The mood within the party is still far from that in 2009, when the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan ー the CDP's progenitor — took the reins of power after a landslide electoral victory, Noda admitted. But the party should seek to seize the upcoming opportunity to the best of its ability.
“When we speak of ‘change in government,’ we need to be realistic,” he said. “For some of us who are older, this is our last chance.”
Twelve years after a yearlong stint in power, Noda made a stunning comeback to the front line in last month’s CDP presidential election. Since then, he has steered the party toward the center-right of the political spectrum, explicitly targeting moderately conservative voters traditionally more aligned with the LDP.
Ruling out any electoral cooperation with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), he has courted the Democratic Party for the People — with which it shares a history in the DPJ — and Nippon Ishin no Kai to join forces in several single-seat districts.
In the last few weeks before official campaigning kicks off on Oct. 15, the party has been accelerating negotiations with other parties to agree on joint candidates in those districts to form a united front against the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition and avoid splitting the opposition vote.
However, two weeks ahead of the election, last-minute adjustments could hardly stir the waters in a way that favors the CDP. Noda has inherited a political landscape in which each party has maximized its own interests for years, opting for cooperation only under limited circumstances.
As of Sunday, the CDP announced plans to field candidates in 209 out of the 289 single-seat constituencies up for grabs in the election, along with an additional 29 candidates under the proportional representation block — bringing the total number of candidates to 238.
The CDP is competing with both the JCP and Nippon Ishin in over 100 constituencies nationwide. In contrast, the LDP is contesting in 265 districts, and formally backing Komeito’s candidates in 11 others.
This fragmentation of the opposition camp has traditionally benefited the ruling coalition. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s dissolution of the Lower House only eight days after he took power has left the CDP with virtually no time for negotiations.
"When different policies rub against each other, it’s hard to cooperate immediately,” Noda said, keeping expectations at bay. “So it's a matter of seeing where we can find an agreement and pursuing a sincere dialogue in every direction.”
A key factor in the election will be whether the CDP will be able to ride the wave of burgeoning dissatisfaction toward the LDP’s handling of the recent scandal, whose fallout still weighs heavily on the ruling party.
Recent opinion polls have shown that public reception of the new Ishiba government has been lukewarm — a sign that the administration still suffers from the repercussions of the scandal.
However, other data has pointed to deep-seated skepticism toward a potential CDP-led government.
Over the course of the past year, Noda was able to raise his public profile, attacking the LDP in parliament over its handling of the scandal and underlining his long-term commitment to clean politics.
The CDP is heavily betting on him and his political experience as a panacea to improve its image with the general public.
Its election manifesto even opens with an array of Noda’s political career highlights and achievements. The party’s slogan in the election — “A change in government is the greatest political reform" — is one of Noda’s more widely used catchphrases, and leaves little doubt that the issue of clean politics will top the party’s agenda in the campaign more than any other policy matters.
“Before we can talk about anything else, it’s important to regain trust in politics, and create an environment where people can talk about any other policies,” Noda said during the recent interview.
In it, he touched upon the party’s stance on a variety of areas, including diplomacy.
Reiterating the party’s backing of the U.S.-Japan alliance, he said that, in the event that the CDP succeeds in forming a government, he would seek to overhaul the U.S.-Japan Status of Forces Agreement and attempt to alleviate the burden of military bases on local communities.
Ishiba, too, had raised a similar proposal during the recent LDP presidential race only to slowly backtrack after becoming prime minister.
While the CDP supports an increase in military spending, the party would review current plans to implement a tax hike to fund it, Noda said.
On the issue of Japan-China relations, the party’s stance doesn’t differ significantly from the LDP.
However, winning the public’s trust is a precondition to instill a sense of credibility to these policies.
“I ran in the presidential campaign by putting my political career on the line," he said. “I’m ready to do my best.”
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