Despite its strong campaign focus on domestic issues, Britain’s opposition Labour Party is unlikely to turn its back on the Indo-Pacific region should it win Thursday’s general election.
If polls are correct, the party will win the vote by a thumping margin, putting an end to 14 years of successive Conservative-led governments as the country grapples with a myriad of economic and social challenges.
But unlike the Conservatives, who have actively pushed for closer economic and security ties with the Indo-Pacific — including Japan — Labour and its leader, Keir Starmer, have revealed little about their plans for the geopolitically important region.
Nevertheless, experts argue that a Labour-led government would promote existing foreign and defense policy initiatives such as Britain’s next-general fighter development program with Italy and Japan, the country's AUKUS trilateral security deal with Washington and Canberra, as well as its planned accession to a 11-nation trans-Pacific trading bloc later this year.
Several national polls put Labour ahead of the Tories by a near-record 20-point lead, which would propel it to a landslide victory in Britain’s first-past-the-post system.
According to The Economist, Labour is on track to win 465 of the 632 seats being contested in England, Scotland and Wales, giving it the biggest majority since World War II, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, which won 365 seats in 2019 under Boris Johnson, could drop to a mere 76, the fewest in its history.
Other polls paint an even bleaker picture for the ruling party.
This includes one that estimates Labour could win 516 seats, including a majority of 382, while the Tories could win as few as 53 seats, with Sunak himself at risk of becoming the country’s first sitting prime minister to lose his seat in a general election.
There are multiple reasons for the Tories’ collapse, as many voters see them as responsible for Britain’s sluggish economy, cost-of-living crisis, high tax burden, housing shortages, immigration issues and the dire state of the country's National Health Service, just to name a few.
“There are too many reasons to list for the British people rejecting the Tories,” said Tina Burrett, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo.
While both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war generated disruption beyond the government’s direct control, overall, the Conservatives are expected to leave the U.K. “poorer, more divided and less internationally prestigious than when they took power 14 years ago,” Burrett said.
As a result, the main factor likely to drive British voters to the polls is their belief that now is the “other side’s turn to govern” as Labour is “no longer tainted by the decisions it made while in power over a decade ago and is now seen as more electable with a more centrist leader,” said Simon Chelton, an associate fellow at the London-based RUSI think tank.
Despite Britain’s domestic challenges, whoever wins Thursday’s election will be immediately thrust onto the world stage, having to deal with pressing foreign and defense policy matters ranging from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
While both parties have presented themselves as guarantors of British security, promising significant increases in defense spending in an increasingly unstable international security environment, Labour doesn’t even mention the word “Indo-Pacific” in its manifesto.
This stands in stark contrast with the Tories who, especially after Brexit, have been the main driver behind the country’s “Indo-Pacific tilt” — an ambitious plan for Britain to become “the European partner with the broadest and most integrated presence” in Asia.
The Conservatives laid a solid foundation for enhanced British economic, diplomatic and security engagement with a number of countries in the region, while revising their approach to China, particularly after Sunak declared an end to the “golden era” of Sino-U.K. relations in late 2022.
In just under three years, the U.K. became a foundational member of the AUKUS security pact, secured a dialogue partner status with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and is now expected to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, an important trade deal that provides it with yet another entry point into the region.
At the same time, Britain has been rapidly deepening both military and defense-industrial ties, particularly with Japan. This has been highlighted by the signing of not only a visiting-forces agreement but also a trilateral deal to develop a next-generation fighter jet with Japan and Italy.
London and Tokyo have also deepened economic relations, signing a post-Brexit economic partnership agreement that expanded a previous deal with the European Union.
“The U.K. arguably has the most developed Indo-Pacific policy among its European peers,” said Robert Ward, a Japan expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Still, given the urgency and magnitude of Britain’s challenges both at home and within Europe, it’s easy to see why Labour’s electoral campaign has focused on domestic and regional issues.
This, however, doesn’t mean the party will neglect the Indo-Pacific if it comes to power.
“While Labour would likely prioritize stabilizing relations with the EU, which may somewhat shift Britain’s current foreign policy focus, the momentum of London’s engagement with the Indo-Pacific is strong and thus likely to continue,” Ward said.
In its manifesto, the party committed to the AUKUS deal, including its economic programs. It also vowed to implement a “compete, challenge and cooperate” approach to relations with Beijing that resembles the current government’s stance — an indication that a softening of the U.K.’s China policy is unlikely.
“In practice there is unlikely to be any deep difference in (foreign and defense) policy,” Chelton said, noting that close relations with major Indo-Pacific countries are likely to continue, including with India, Australia and Japan.
“Labour understands the importance of British-Japanese relations, but I suspect that its views on Japan are as yet largely undeveloped,” Ward said.
Still, a new Labour government “would inherit a well-formed institutional presence” in the region and an increasingly strong security relationship with Japan that complements their long-standing bilateral economic ties, Ward added.
To ensure bilateral ties remain on strong footing, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara is reportedly considering traveling to Britain later this month to swiftly forge ties with any new Cabinet, while reaffirming cooperation on the joint fighter aircraft project.
Experts say that the main factors that could potentially limit new regional initiatives by the U.K. would be resource constraints, particularly fiscal ones, as well as a potential return to the White House of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
“The foreign-policy parameters of the new Labour administration will partly be set by what happens in the U.S. presidential elections in November,” Ward said, noting that the unpredictability of a second Trump administration would “create difficulties for all European governments, not just that in the U.K.”
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