India’s Modi gets Pyrrhic poll victory as challenges loom for BJP

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on track Wednesday to secure a third straight term as leader of the world’s largest democracy, but to remain in power he will now have to rely on his coalition allies — a situation that will likely affect his domestic reform agenda while leaving his foreign policy goals intact.

Following a six-week election that saw a record-breaking 642 million voters head to the polls, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its majority in the country’s 545-seat Lok Sabha — the lower house of parliament — after defeats in key states to an opposition coalition that performed better than expected and capitalized on key voter concerns.

While the BJP still emerged as the single largest winner, it secured just 240 of the 272 seats needed for a majority — well short of its 2014 and 2019 election tallies.

This has led some to term the election a Pyrrhic victory for Modi, as it is the first time in a decade that the BJP is dependent on the support of other parties within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to rule the world’s most populous country.

The BJP-led alliance secured at least 291 seats, compared with the 353 it won in 2019.

“People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time,” Modi tweeted Tuesday as the Indian Election Commission announced the results following a 44-day, multiphase vote.

Calling the alliance’s performance a “historical feat in India’s history,” the 73-year-old leader who will now hold coalition talks also pledged to continue “the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people.”

The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, led by the Congress party, surpassed expectations, winning more than 230 combined seats. The coalition now appears increasingly confident it can make a comeback and dethrone the BJP in the next election, in 2029.

“Despite Modi’s expected return to power, this will be a diminished government, reliant on its coalition partners who will almost certainly hold the BJP’s feet to the fire,” said Manjari Chatterjee Miller, an expert on South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, noted that what stood out the most in this election is how the tables turned, at least to some degree, for Modi.

“As expected, the BJP won and the opposition lost, but that victory came at a cost as the BJP failed to come anywhere close to the supermajority it sought and the opposition outperformed expectations in a big way, despite being weak, divided and bereft of a leader with the capacity to counter Modi,” he said.

Experts pointed to a variety of factors behind the BJP’s worse-than-expected performance.

While the Modi administration has been largely successful in triggering high economic growth, launching massive infrastructure projects and expanding basic services for the poor, issues such as inflation and a lack of jobs have loomed large. This has particularly been the case among young voters, with unemployment among 20- to 24-year-olds reaching 44.4% at the end of 2023.

“India has a large, young population who are looking for jobs and can't find any,” Miller said. “You can't eat Hindu nationalism.”

Antiincumbency appears to have been another key element, and the opposition seems to have been more savvy than expected in terms of campaigning and picking top candidates.

This is important as India’s first-past-the-post electoral system — in which multiparty contests in parliamentary districts can be won with only a plurality, not a majority — had allowed the BJP to pull off resounding victories in the past, despite only securing about 40% of the popular vote.

However, some experts say it would be wrong to interpret the election results as a complete rebuke of Modi's leadership.

“It is conceivable that Modi’s inability to win a majority will dent his image and allow other politicians to have a relatively greater voice, but it remains the case that no other Indian politician has done nearly as well,” said Daniel Markey, a senior adviser on South Asia at the United States Institute of Peace.

It’s important to keep in mind that expectations for Modi's BJP were sky high, and even though the party failed to meet them, it still cruised to a third straight victory with its NDA partners, Markey said, calling this a “historic accomplishment.”

“This shows the continued dominance of the BJP, unmatched by any Indian party other than Congress in its heyday,” he said.

The key question now is just how the NDA’s reduced parliamentary majority will affect Modi’s ability to rule over the next five years.

“If Modi had hopes of earning enough seats to change the constitution, then that hope is shot,” the Wilson Center's Kugelman said.

The BJP could also struggle to push through key economic reforms at a time when Modi is aiming to turn the country into a global manufacturing hub.

“With less political space and a smaller public mandate, it will be tough for Modi to accept the political risk needed to push through with reforms,” he said.

Some experts say it would be wrong to interpret the election results as a complete rebuke of Modi's leadership. | AFP-JIJI

It’s unclear, however, whether the electoral setback will see the BJP adopt a more conciliatory approach at a time when Indian politics has become highly polarized.

“It's conceivable that on some issues the BJP will need to be more inclusive in its governing style,” Markey said.

If governing in a coalition forces the BJP to use parliament in a more traditional way, permitting debate and subjecting senior officials to questions, that would be an extremely healthy outcome, he added.

“But on the whole, we should not underestimate Modi's power and authority going forward,” Markey warned, noting concerns over India's "democratic erosion" over the past decade, especially in terms of how the country is ruled “after the votes are counted.”

Once a new NDA government is in place, Modi is expected to continue enjoying remarkable power over Indian state institutions as well as a dominant influence over the media and key parts of the private sector.

While this could invigorate other political movements, it could also result in the BJP and its coalition partners adopting “even more controlling measures going forward,” Markey warned.

On the diplomatic front, however, continuity is largely expected as there is a strong consensus within the NDA on defense and foreign policy.

This includes promoting India as an advocate for the Global South, modernizing and reforming its defense industry and boosting the country’s capabilities to deter neighboring China.

“Modi remains an effective and popular front man for India on the global stage, so there is little reason to expect that the opposition's efforts to criticize his handling of foreign affairs — including rocky relations with China — would hold a lot of weight with Indian voters,” Markey said.

“In sum, expect Modi to continue to enjoy a relatively free hand in foreign affairs.”

While pushing for strategic autonomy and maintaining good ties with Russia, Modi will also seek to deepen ties with the West, something that has already been welcomed by the United States and Japan.

“I expect a continued close partnership between the United States and India,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

For its part, Tokyo pledged to continue strengthening relations with New Delhi, with top government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi describing India as “an important partner for the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”