With a general election set to take place in the next 18 months, Nippon Ishin no Kai’s ability to expand its reach from its Kansai home base and garner support across Japan — starting with Tokyo's No. 15 district — will be under growing scrutiny.
For the party, which has made regional decentralization and vocal opposition to the overconcentration of economic and political power in Tokyo its signature policies, fine-tuning an effective message that appeals to voters in the capital would seemingly be the next box to check.
Over the last decade, Nippon Ishin has swept through local politics in Osaka, pledging to tackle the city's financial distress through radical administrative reforms, while building a solid support base and almost driving the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) out of the region.
However, Shun Otokita, a Nippon Ishin Upper House lawmaker and the party’s policy chief since 2021, says the party is in no rush to formally shift its focus from its Kansai base.
“We’re the only party in Japan headquartered outside of Tokyo,” Otokita said, pointing to its strong advocacy for regional autonomy. “While I do think we need to grow out of our Osaka skin, we can’t afford to abandon our roots.”
Otokita is a rare example in Nippon Ishin: He was born and raised in Tokyo, where he got his start as a local politician.
After serving two terms in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly representing his native Kita Ward, he won an Upper House seat with Nippon Ishin’s backing in 2019. In the next Lower House election, he will run in what is expected to be a crowded field in Tokyo’s No. 1 district, which covers the capital's central Chiyoda and Shinjuku wards.
At the moment, Nippon Ishin boasts two Lower House proportional representation seats in Tokyo, but it has yet to gain a foothold in the capital’s single-seat constituencies.
Still, the party has set the bar high, openly declaring it aims to become Japan’s largest opposition party after the next election and, Otokita said, double its seats in Tokyo.
Party chief Nobuyuki Baba has set an even more audacious goal to challenge the ruling LDP in two elections' time.
At the moment, Nippon Ishin, together with a recently established grouping led by Lower House lawmaker Seiji Maehara, holds 45 seats in the Lower House, fewer than half of the 96 held by the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP).
In the October 2021 general election, Nippon Ishin — born as the national offspring of a regional party that has dominated local politics in Osaka over the last decade — cruised to a victory in 15 of the prefecture's 19 single-seat constituencies and obtained an additional seat in neighboring Hyogo.
In a round of local elections last year, the party secured 774 seats in city and prefectural councils nationwide — far surpassing its goal of 600. It also crushed the LDP in a by-election in Wakayama Prefecture.
Bolstered by a young and energetic base, the party has sought to disrupt Japan’s political landscape. Setting itself up as the antithesis to the establishment, the party appealed to reform-minded unaffiliated voters in urban areas, a large voter pool increasingly courted by all major parties.
In contrast to the LDP or CDP — which have traditionally relied on the support of fixed constituencies, including business circles and labor unions — Nippon Ishin has vowed to combat vested interests and eradicate what it sees as an inefficient use of public resources.
In parliament, the party has taken a case-by-case approach to cooperating with both the ruling bloc and the opposition on certain policies, with its former leadership boasting strong ties with the administrations of former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga.
Now, as Nippon Ishin bids to make waves on the national stage, it is gearing up for a highly anticipated by-election in Tokyo's No. 15 district on April 28, following the resignation of the LDP incumbent after he was found guilty of breaching campaign regulations, including vote-buying.
In the Tokyo district, Nippon Ishin might benefit from an early-comer advantage, as other main parties have yet to put forward a candidate. But establishing a solid footprint in highly competitive districts such as the city’s single-seat constituencies will remain a challenge, said Hajime Kidera, a professor at Meiji University and an expert in Tokyo politics.
“In areas where the LDP and CDP have a solid track record, it might be hard for Nippon Ishin,” said Kidera, conceding that the party might be able to compete with Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First), the local party linked to Gov. Yuriko Koike — but only in a post-Koike era.
“Even at a time when the LDP is torn by a slush fund scandal, the party is still struggling to gain active support,” he added.
In Tokyo, the group now retains 75 members across all local assemblies in the city, though only one in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, which remains firmly in the grip of the LDP and Tomin First no Kai.
In a bid to build much-needed name recognition in the capital, Nippon Ishin has finalized its plans to field candidates in all of the soon-to-be 30 Lower House constituencies in Tokyo.
According to Otokita, Nippon Ishin will run in the capital on a platform centered around free education, an overhaul of the social-security system and measures to tackle widening inequality.
But, seemingly aware of the difficulties of envisioning a palatable policy program for the capital, he acknowledged that advancing cost-cutting policies and radical administrative reforms might not serve the party’s needs in a city like Tokyo, which is largely free from any strict budgetary constraints.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly is currently discussing a record ¥8.4 trillion ($56 billion) budget proposal for the next fiscal year starting in April. Koike's administration has stepped up efforts to provide additional child care support to Tokyoites without relying on funding from the central government.
In the budget proposal, it has set aside over ¥2.5 billion for a project-mapping display in one of the buildings that hosts the local government's headquarters, prompting the ire of opposition parties who have labeled it a colossal waste of public funds.
The party could seek to capitalize on this, but it must first outline a clear policy platform that appeals to a broader swath of voters beyond its Kansai stronghold.
A quick glance at Nippon Ishin's executive lineup shows just how much it relies on the region for support.
Its leader, deputy leader, secretary-general and parliamentary affairs chief all hail from Osaka. The party’s headquarters remain there, and its general convention will be held in Kyoto on March 24.
On top of that, Nippon Ishin’s leading role in the bid to host the 2025 World Expo in Osaka could deal a further blow to its chances for expansion in the capital. The party has taken the brunt of criticsm over the surge in costs borne by taxpayers — a figure that recently skyrocketed to ¥162 billion, according to the Cabinet Secretariat.
With the complicated legacy of the 2021 Tokyo Olympics and associated corruption scandals still fresh in voters minds, the Expo's budget issues could affect the party's image among those in the capital, said Meiji University's Kidera.
In perfect consistency with his surroundings — a room replete with Osaka Expo trinkets — Otokita shrugs off what he calls "bad press" about the marquee event.
“When the event is held, it’ll be a success and its economic impact will be enormous,” he said. "No matter how we try to convey the message, I don’t think it will resonate among people in Tokyo until the (kickoff) time is nearer.”
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