A day before Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was set to reshuffle his Cabinet on Wednesday, the most prominent positions appeared unlikely to change — until the eleventh hour.

Cabinet and party leadership changes are often used by prime ministers to signal a pivot in policy direction or to shore up their sagging popularity by appointing younger, fresher faces to new posts. Instead of a major overhaul, Kishida looked set to have chosen only a minor tinkering with his political machine late into Tuesday, with many powerful Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) veterans expected to stay where they are or receive senior posts as the prime minister prioritized internal party politics over worries about public popularity.

But the prime minister appeared to switch gears Tuesday evening, with Japanese media reports indicating that Kishida would replace current Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi with former Justice Minister Yoko Kamikawa and switch out defense chief Yasukazu Hamada with Minoru Kihara, a onetime Japan Airlines executive.

Still, media reports also indicated that trade minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki will keep their posts.

Taro Kono is also set to remain as digital minister, despite controversy over a string of errors related to the My Number national identification system he oversees.

Reports also indicated that Tetsuo Saito of the LDP's coalition partner, Komeito, will stay on as land and transport minister. A Komeito representative has held that post since the ruling coalition returned to power in 2012.

Key LDP members will also reportedly keep their party leadership posts or receive other high-level positions. Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, Vice President Taro Aso and policy chief Koichi Hagiuda are expected to be reappointed.

As for other new faces, Yuko Obuchi, currently chair of the party organization and campaign headquarters, will reportedly take over the more powerful post of the party's election committee chair from Hiroshi Moriyama, a veteran LDP lawmaker who may become the general affairs committee chair.

Until Tuesday, the process leading up to the Cabinet reshuffle has been notable for its lack of surprises, and thus a lack of strong public excitement. An NHK poll released Monday showed the Kishida Cabinet’s support rate at 36%. But Kishida appeared to try and split the difference, looking to raise his popularity in the polls with new faces in a reshuffled Cabinet while also seeking to address internal party concerns.

Keeping a number of veterans in their current posts — or at least within the Cabinet and LDP leadership — may not generate a lot of buzz among voters, but Kishida seemingly hopes it will help signal stability and continuity in his administration as it prepares its agenda for the next session of parliament, which is expected to begin sometime next month.

In addition, the Cabinet reshuffle reflects Kishida’s need to satisfy the demands of the most influential party factions, whose support he can't do without. Aso heads a 55-member faction, the party’s second largest, while Motegi heads the third-largest group, which has 54 members. Kishida's own faction is the fourth largest, with 45 members.

Keeping Matsuno, Nishimura and Hagiuda in the Cabinet or in high-level party leadership positions means Kishida also retains the cooperation of three of the 15 steering committee members of the faction once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which, at 100 members, is the party’s largest.

The expected choices also reflect an attempt by Kishida to make it more difficult for potential rivals to emerge. As administration insiders, they will be expected to toe the administration’s line and carry out Kishida’s policies. As outsiders, it would be easier for them to criticize Kishida and build support for their own candidacy in next September’s LDP presidential election.

Motegi, Kono, Hagiuda and Nishimura have all been touted as possible post-Kishida candidates for prime minister.

Finally, giving Obuchi a senior post would have two political advantages. First, it adds a woman to the senior LDP leadership, a move Kishida hopes will appeal to voters. Second, she is close to Komeito and can act as a bridge between the two parties, whose relationship was strained earlier this year over which candidates to support in Tokyo electoral districts. It was under Obuchi’s father, former prime minister Keizo Obuchi, that the LDP and Komeito joined forces in 1999.

Ultimately, Kishida appears to have bet that keeping old friends as well as potential rivals close — while also promoting fresh faces to key posts — is the best political strategy as he looks ahead to the autumn Diet session and beyond.