Kishida comes away from parliamentary session with key goals achieved

Parliament's annual session, which drew to a close Wednesday after 150 days of debate, went off without major hitches for the government, which was able to pass key pieces of legislation in spite of at times vehement resistance from the opposition.

Out of 60 bills it submitted, 58 became law, a 96.7% passage rate — a slight drop from the equivalent session last year, where all 61 bills received parliament's approval.

Kishida entered 2023 in a precarious position, with his approval ratings just above the danger zone after he was forced to dismiss four of his ministers, while his party’s ties with the Unification Church caused him additional headaches.

However, over the almost five months since the start of parliamentary deliberations, his ruling Liberal Democratic Party proved able to deliver on issues of critical importance for the government — partly thanks to an ever-fragmented opposition.

A hike in defense spending, one of Kishida’s priorities, was at the center of the prime minister’s policy speech during the first debate in parliament, and was largely condemned by the opposition parties. They accused the government of lacking transparency over how it planned to fund the increase — still an unresolved question, after any debate on a tax rise was delayed by the government.

In May, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), the largest opposition party in parliament, submitted a no-confidence motion against Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, supported by the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi, blaming him for a law they described as being beyond Japan's financial capacity. The motion was voted down by the ruling parties as well as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Nippon Ishin no Kai, both opposition parties.

In the last weeks of debate, the ruling coalition managed to pass a bill on defense spending, allowing the government to secure funds to take the country closer to a goal of spending 2% of gross domestic product, after a cap of 1% had been maintained for many years.

A bill to extend the operating period of nuclear plants past 60 years, meanwhile, was approved thanks to cooperation with Nippon Ishin and the DPP — a pattern repeatedly seen in this session.

Aimed at reducing Japan’s dependency on imported fossil fuels, the bill also seeks to enlarge the country’s supply of renewable energy and marks a significant shift in Japan’s energy policy. However, resistance at the local level and complex safety inspections of nuclear plants won’t make it as easy for the government to enact its plans in the long run.

For its part, the CDP spent most of its political capital on opposing a plan to revise the current asylum law. Early on in the deliberations, the party showed its intention to cooperate with the ruling parties over a revision of the bill, but after one of the party’s firm requests — the establishment of a third-party body to assess asylum applications — wasn’t included in the law, it began to staunchly oppose the legislation.

In the Upper House, the party first submitted a counterproposal to the ruling coalition's bill, and then a censure motion against Justice Minister Ken Saito, delaying the approval of the legislation. But that didn’t prevent the LDP and its junior partner Komeito from steamrolling the bill, once again with the backing of sections of the opposition.

Last week, one day after Kishida declared he would not be calling a snap election in the then-ongoing session of parliament, the CDP submitted a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet that was rejected.

With the opposition largely fragmented, the CDP — whose leader Kenta Izumi has set a target of an ambitious 150 seats in a potential general election, up from the current 97 — did not have a particularly fruitful session of parliament. The JCP and Reiwa Shinsengumi seem to be the only forces willing to cooperate with the CDP in parliament, but mutual electoral support has been repeatedly ruled out.

Other parties, namely the DPP and Nippon Ishin, seemed more inclined to work together or in cooperation with the ruling party, rather than joining forces with the CDP. Nippon Ishin in particular did not hesitate to strongly condemn Izumi’s party at times, prompting speculation about a potential entry into the ruling coalition.

This kind of cooperation with the coalition was on display again with a bill to promote understanding of sexual minorities, which passed early this month despite strong resistance from the CDP and the JCP.

In early February, derogatory remarks about sexual minorities by one of Kishida’s aides, soon sacked by the prime minister, gave renewed momentum to debates over a bill to protect the rights of LGBTQ people.

The ruling party reached an agreement over a proposal following months of internal dispute, and then adopted the language used in a bill jointly submitted by Nippon Ishin and the DPP.

On several occasions, the opposition criticized the behavior and attitudes of the prime minister and his aides.

Kishida received a great amount of flak after his son and then-political secretary, Shotaro Kishida, was reported to have used official vehicles in order to go shopping during his father’s trip in January to Europe and North America. He was removed from the post early this month, following the publication of photographs taken at symbolically important locations at the prime minister’s official residence during a year-end family party.

And after Kishida's visit to Kyiv, opposition parties condemned his decision to give Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a hisshō shamoji, a large wooden rice paddle used as a good-luck charm when seeking victory over an opponent.

Growing rumors of a snap election loomed over the last few weeks of debate, but Kishida quelled the speculation on June 15 when he publicly said he would not call a snap vote during the then-current parliamentary session.

The prime minister’s decision largely stemmed from a drop in his approval ratings over the past few weeks, as well as fears that a snap vote could potentially backfire against the LDP amid its strained ties with Komeito.

Most lawmakers will now head back to their home constituencies, and the focus in the political center of Nagatacho will be on whether Kishida will play the snap election card in the parliamentary session set to open in the fall.