Biden and Xi ease Cold War fears, but fundamental frictions remain

With U.S.-China relations descending into dangerous territory, the leaders of the world’s two superpowers sought to clear the air and chart a new path forward in their first in-person summit meeting since U.S. President Joe Biden took office.

But while the “blunt” talks on Monday on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit marked a positive — if modest — step forward, the million-dollar question is whether that momentum can be sustained, as key challenges remain.

“Washington and Beijing stated their desires not to have relations spiral out of control,” said Ian Chong, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, adding that Biden and Xi Jinping had recognized issues of common interest such as stabilizing the world economy, food security and the urgency of environmental issues, and agreed to exchanges.

“This is a positive start, but whether these initial steps lead anywhere is not yet knowable,” Chong said.

During the roughly three-hour talks in Bali, Indonesia, the two leaders agreed to create a new foundation for the relationship while dealing with both bilateral and global concerns. They also pledged to support the creation of joint working groups, with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expected to follow up on these discussions in a visit to China early next year.

As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi put it, the meeting achieved “the expected goals of in-depth communication, clear intentions, drawing ‘red lines,’ preventing conflicts, pointing out directions and discussing cooperation.”

More dialogue needed

The decision to increase dialogue and keep lines of communication open is perhaps the most important takeaway of the meeting, the first in-person summit between the countries’ leaders in three years.

“During the Obama years, there were literally hundreds of meetings a year ranging from high-level strategic dialogue to pretty low-level operational meetings,” said Nick Bisley, dean and professor of international relations at Australia’s La Trobe University.

But communications became strained during Donald Trump's tumultuous time in the White House. Then, following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan in August, even work on reining in climate change was halted, Bisley said.

Increased dialogue that then moves on to collaboration on more pressing transnational challenges “would be a hugely positive development for Sino-U.S. ties,” he said.

However, the readouts from the two sides also reflected fundamentally different views on the overall direction of the relationship, with Biden saying that Washington “will continue to compete vigorously” with Beijing, including by “investing in sources of strength at home and aligning efforts with allies and partners around the world.”

Nonetheless, Biden appeared to try and temper his administration’s approach by noting specifically that this competition “should not veer into conflict” and that he believes “there need not be a new Cold War.”

“As the leaders of our two nations, we share a responsibility, in my view, to show that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict, and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation,” Biden said in an opening statement before the closed-door talks.

Xi, for his part, said the two sides “need to chart the right course” for bilateral ties, arguing that the current state of the relationship “does not conform to the fundamental interests of the two countries or their people, or meet the expectations of the international community.”

Both countries need to “tackle unprecedented challenges and seize unprecedented opportunities,” Xi said.

“This is the larger context in which we should view and handle China-U.S. relations,” he was quoted as saying. “China-U.S. relations should not be a zero-sum game where one side out-competes or thrives at the expense of the other.”

Xi draws ‘red line’ on Taiwan

Sino-U.S. ties have plummeted to fresh lows over a variety of issues, including trade, human rights and Taiwan.

But it was Pelosi’s August visit to the self-ruled island — not to mention Biden’s repeated pledges that the United States would defend it in the event of a Chinese attack — that sent tensions soaring to highs unseen in decades.

Taiwan, which Beijing views as a renegade province to be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary, featured prominently in statements released by both sides shortly after the meeting.

In the U.S. statement, the White House said Biden had “laid out in detail” that Washington’s “One China” policy — which sees the U.S. officially recognize Beijing rather than Taipei, but with the stance that Taiwan's status is unsettled — has not changed.

“The world has an interest in the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” the statement said.

It added that Biden had also raised U.S. objections to what he said were China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive actions” toward Taiwan that undermine stability across the strait and in the broader region.

In response to Pelosi’s visit, China conducted days of massive military exercises around Taiwan that saw it launch ballistic missiles over the island, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry. Some of those missiles landed for the first time in waters near Japan’s far-flung Nansei Islands.

In Xi’s statement, the Chinese leader was clear that Taiwan represents his country’s top concern in the Sino-U.S. relationship.

“The Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed,” he warned.

“Anyone that seeks to split Taiwan from China will be violating the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation; the Chinese people will absolutely not let that happen,” he said, adding that he hopes to see the U.S. act on pledges not to use Taiwan “as a tool to seek advantages in competition with China or to contain China.”

Beijing’s differing views on Taiwan suggest some disagreement with Washington’s claim that its position on the island has not changed. China rejected responsibility for escalating cross-Strait tensions, appearing instead to put the blame on Taipei for what it said were aggressive actions to try and change the status quo.

Still, while some former U.S. officials and analysts say Beijing is moving closer to a decision to take Taiwan, Biden brushed off concerns of a conflict erupting over the democratic island.

“I do not think there’s any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan,” he said.

Zhang Baohui, a professor at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University, said this understanding by Biden should serve to restrain any views in the administration that conflict over Taiwan is looming, “as Washington should feel less obliged to demonstrate ‘resolve’ to deter China.”

Nevertheless, Biden cited "misunderstandings about intentions or actions" as his "biggest concern" for the future of U.S.-China ties.

Although the meeting helped clear the air on their respective positions on Taiwan, the two nations still hold zero-sum views toward each other and blame the other for the current imbroglio, said Michael D. Swaine, director of the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington.

“Their first priority should be to follow up their positive words at this meeting with substantive actions to show a willingness to engage in meaningful talks involving, where necessary, mutual accommodation and positive-sum initiatives,” Swaine said.

Whether this will be possible remains to be seen, as the U.S. Congress is preparing to approve significant increases in military aid to Taiwan via the Taiwan Policy Act, a piece of legislation that would fast-track arms sales to the island while establishing a comprehensive joint military training program to increase interoperability with U.S. forces.

Differing views on Ukraine war

The two leaders also exchanged views on the war in Ukraine, with Biden condemning Moscow’s invasion and its “irresponsible threats of nuclear use.” According to the U.S. statement, both sides reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war “should never be fought and can never be won,” including in Ukraine.

U.S. officials have said that there is “undeniably” discomfort in Beijing over Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling and Russia’s battlefield conduct in the war.

The readouts also differed in terms of who should engage in peace talks. For instance, the Chinese side indicated that while Moscow and Kyiv should resume negotiations, the U.S., EU and NATO should also open dialogue with Russia. This did not appear in the U.S. statement.

According to National University’s Chong, this suggests that Beijing sees them as “direct parties to the conflict, rather than (it being) a matter of Russia invading Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, Biden also urged Xi to use China’s influence with North Korea to rein in the nuclear-armed country after a record flurry of missile tests and growing fears that Pyongyang will soon carry out its first nuclear test since 2017. Beijing is Pyongyang’s main patron, and the two allies have in recent years sought to grow their strategic ties.

The Chinese statement made no mention of North Korea, nor did it refer to U.S. concerns over human rights and other issues in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, though Wang, the Chinese foreign minister, said Tuesday that Xi had reiterated his stance on Pyongyang’s “reasonable” security concerns.

What’s next?

La Trobe’s Bisley said that while there are good reasons to be optimistic, the reality is that the two superpowers have fundamentally incompatible views of the Indo-Pacific region and their respective places within it. This, he said, will remain the key determinant of the relationship over the longer term.

This friction was reflected in a China Daily editorial released after the meeting that cast blame on the Biden White House for the countries’ troubles building a durable relationship.

“The fact remains that the amicability of their previous talks have not helped check the souring of the relations between the two countries, and it is the Biden administration that has continually said ‘we can get along’ while acting to the contrary,” wrote the state-owned paper.

“It has never ceased trying to shake the foundation of Sino-U.S. ties in any way it can — blacklisting Chinese companies, fabricating allegations of human rights abuses by China and provoking Beijing on the Taiwan question, among others,” it added.

Analyst Swaine said that much will depend on whether the dangerous downward spiral regarding Taiwan can be arrested.

“Deterrence over Taiwan or any other issue of contention must also include credible levels of reassurance to each side,” he said. “This still needs to occur, and be sustained. We shall see if the two nations can overcome the negative effects of domestic politics and ideology-driven assessments of one another and create a stable foundation.”