Britain’s new PM Liz Truss to get closer to Japan and tougher on China

From saying the “jury’s out” on whether French President Emmanuel Macron is an ally, to vowing “to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine,” new British Prime Minister Liz Truss is known for her strong foreign policy rhetoric. That’s something Asia may need to get used to as well.

Truss is reportedly set to label China a “threat” to U.K. interests, while at the same time seeking closer ties to other Indo-Pacific countries such as Japan, India, Australia and South Korea.

The Conservative politician, who served as international trade secretary before becoming foreign secretary last September, is familiar with the global stage.

She has supported Ukraine and confronted Russia, been a strong advocate of the government’s outward-looking "Global Britain" vision and overseen the U.K’s “Indo-Pacific tilt” — an ambitious plan for the U.K. to become “the European partner with the broadest and most integrated presence” in the region. Truss has also promoted the launch of the AUKUS security pact with Australia and the U.S., and sought to enhance cooperation with Southeast Asia.

At the same time, she has made bold statements, calling for a “global NATO” that is ready to tackle worldwide threats and ensure that democracies such as Taiwan are able to defend themselves.

The 47-year-old has clarified she is not advocating an extension of NATO membership to countries in other regions, but rather raising awareness for the need “to pre-empt threats in the Indo-Pacific, working with our allies like Japan and Australia to ensure the Pacific is protected.”

The concept, however, remains unclear — and complicated.

“Many states in Asia cling to nonaligned status, reject formal alliances and resent being lectured by a former colonial power,” said Jamie Gaskarth, professor of international relations at Britain’s Open University. “NATO’s new strategic concept is vague on links with the Indo-Pacific. For a host of reasons, the concept is not well-suited to the region.

“Of course, if China becomes more assertive, that may change, so Truss will want to foster more ad hoc clubs and coalitions with Indo-Pacific states ready for that eventuality.”

With an eye on China, Truss has also pledged to revisit the U.K’s Integrated Review, published last year, which outlines British priorities in diplomacy and defense over the coming decade.

“Truss is not prone to risk aversion or offering bland reassurances,” John Kampfner, executive director for the “U.K. in the World Initiative” at Chatham House, wrote in an analysis piece for the London-based think tank. “She made clear during the campaign for the Conservative leadership that she wants the 2021 Integrated Review redrawn with a far greater focus on combating the ‘growing malign influence’ of Russia and China.”

Shifting China’s status from the present “systemic competitor” to an “acute threat” would put Beijing on an equal standing with Moscow.

The new prime minister — described by Kampfner as a “Thatcher-era politician in an Instagram age” — also aims to boost defense spending from 2.1% of gross domestic product to 2.7%, and then to 3% by 2030 — including more funding for intelligence and cybersecurity — at a time when public finances are in dire straits.

Truss, who has now become the fourth British prime minister in six years, also envisages a greater role for the Group of Seven nations, which in her view should act as an “economic NATO,” meaning that the group should offer support to the economy of a member if it is being targeted “by an aggressive regime.”

Closer ties to Asia

Analysts expect Truss, who came to power after winning the backing of Conservative party members, to continue to boost Britain’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific in line with her previous efforts as trade and foreign secretary.

“Both Truss and her predecessor, Boris Johnson, favor the U.K.'s Indo-Pacific tilt,” Gaskarth said, adding that they “want Britain to have a more global than regional outlook and show leadership in the world.

“John Bew, Johnson's influential advisor, has apparently been asked to stay on, and Truss is expected to appoint officials and ministers she has worked with at the Foreign Office to key positions.”

He also noted that British policymakers are very keen to deepen ties with Japan — from military cooperation over the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which will replace the Japanese F-2 fighter, to political and cultural links.

“Japan, as an independent trading nation, is seen as a model for the U.K. to aspire to following Brexit.” Gaskarth said. “Truss will be keen to connect with its leadership and foster links with other like-minded states in the region.”

Both the FCAS and the conclusion of a bilateral agreement for greater military cooperation will be factors in the development of stronger defense and security ties between Tokyo and London, said Alessio Patalano, an East Asia security expert and professor at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London.

Geoeconomic considerations along with a prosperity agenda that focuses on connectivity and resilience will also drive the relationship — not just bilaterally but crucially in reinvigorated frameworks such as the G7, he added. Bilateral security ties were further deepened under Johnson, with the Self-Defense Forces carrying out joint exercises with a British aircraft carrier during its deployment to Asia last year.

In his congratulatory message, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida described Japan and the U.K. as “strategic partners sharing fundamental values,” noting that he hopes ties will further strengthen under Truss, including cooperation toward achieving a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

'Network of liberty'

Truss’s agenda for the Indo-Pacific is also expected to be closely aligned to that of Washington, with efforts aimed at implementing AUKUS and ensuring regional stability, especially in the maritime and cyber domains, Patalano noted.

The British leader, who has spoken at length about the need for democracies to rally against authoritarianism, has also called for the need to build a "network of liberty" encompassing democratic states, as well as a more muscular assertion of liberal values to shape the world order.

Gaskarth says this means the new prime minister would favor stronger ties with like-minded states. However, such a policy, which appears to target Russia and China, could also antagonize states that prefer nonalignment, he warned.

Truss's network of liberty will appeal to countries such as Japan and Australia, but its ideological framing risks alienating key countries of geopolitical importance, such as India, Brazil and Turkey, said David Lawrence, a research fellow at Chatham House. He noted that these are important democracies that share the U.K.'s concern about great power conflict and China's rise, but they also rely on China for trade and do not always share a Western approach to political liberties and human rights.

"It will be essential for Truss and other Western leaders to form partnerships with these countries, which will require more creative thinking as well as tangible initiatives on development, trade, finance and migration, if these countries are to be 'won over,’" he said.

But above all, the U.K.'s third female prime minister is expected to be more vocal than her predecessor in criticizing China, calling out Beijing’s violations of human rights and international law, extending curbs on China’s access to sensitive technology, and encouraging greater self-reliance in manufacturing.

The Sino-British relationship has been difficult for some time, and increasingly so over the past four to five years, as noted by Victoria Honeyman, associate professor of British Politics at the university of Leeds.

The Johnson government began reducing the influence of Chinese firms in U.K. infrastructure largely because of concerns over the level of control they might have, as highlighted by London’s decision to remove Huawei equipment and services from the U.K’s 5G network by the end of 2027. This is likely to continue under Truss, and possibly even increase depending on the circumstances, Honeyman says.

With Truss more willing to criticize Beijing and more likely to label China “guilty of genocide" in Xinjiang — which would go much further than a recently published U.N. report on human rights abuses in the region — James D.J. Brown, an associate professor of political science at Temple University Japan, said that “the remaining gaps on Britain’s China policy are likely to further close.”

Brown noted it is also easier for Truss to take a tougher rhetorical stance against China because, unlike Johnson, she was never associated with the Conservative Party's push for a "golden era" in relations with Beijing, adding that there is also growing consensus within the British political establishment about the need to take a tougher stance on China.

Patalano believes the challenge posed by China to the international order will likely inform Truss’s approach to Britain’s defense engagement in the region.

“This is important, considering the growing strategic convergence between Russia and China,” he said. “Truss has been vocal of the implications of this convergence and will likely continue to explore the extent to which NATO should engage with the Indo-Pacific, especially since NATO’s core global partners are in the region, notably Japan.”

Domestic considerations

At the same time, experts warn that issues much closer to home will likely hamper Truss’s foreign policy goals.

The new prime minister, who has indicated she does not want a general election until 2024, faces an array of challenges, with the U.K. in the grip of its worst economic crisis in decades. Truss has inherited an economy that is forecast to go into a long recession later this year, with inflation at a 40-year high and limits on the options for getting growth going again.

With this in mind, it is unclear whether this would be the best time to break off economic ties with China.

The U.K. is also on a potential collision course with Brussels if Truss abandons parts of the Brexit deal relating to checks at the Irish border, which would worsen Britain’s already strained ties with the European Union.

To make matters worse, opinion polls suggest that large parts of the British public have little confidence in Truss’s government to adopt the right policies and plans to tackle the worsening cost-of-living crisis. In a recent survey, half of the respondents said they were disappointed about Truss being the country’s next leader.

Temple University's Brown argues that Truss's time will largely be consumed by issues such as soaring energy prices and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as her need to overcome opinion poll deficits and prepare for the next election.

“This will only leave little opportunity for enhancing Britain's role in Asia,” he said, noting that, for at least the time being, London’s biggest foreign policy changes will take the form of rhetoric rather than substantial action.