Japanese government coy on specifics as five-year plan to strengthen defense confirmed

An annual policy plan outlining the government’s mid- to long-term vision for Japan was approved by the Cabinet on Tuesday, but it did not specifically mention a hotly debated defense spending figure of 2% of gross domestic product — despite a ruling party recommendation that the number be included.

However, the 2023 basic economic and fiscal policy guidelines — known as "honebuto no hōshin," or literally “big-boned policy outline” — did mention the government’s plans to bolster Japan’s defense capabilities over a period of five years, a timeline that aligned with earlier recommendations by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

The report cited the 2% of GDP spending target recommended by NATO, while stating that given the current security climate, Japan would “look to accelerate its development of a new national defense strategy,” including the as yet unspecified plan to “drastically strengthen” the nation’s defenses over five years.

The plan was revised following pressure from within the LDP to clarify the wording after an earlier document released on May 31 did not mention a specific time frame.

The annual policy plan sets out economic measures the government intends to employ in order to achieve its mid- to long-term goals. The focus on defense marks a contrast to the economic planning of recent years, when fiscal policy was primarily aimed at reducing the societal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now, as the pandemic enters a less dangerous phase, a number of geopolitical crises have made security a key issue for the LDP.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised global commodity prices and stoked concern, including from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, that a similar conflict could erupt in East Asia — namely over Taiwan.

In Tokyo last month at a meeting of “the Quad” — which groups the U.S., Japan, Australia and India — U.S. President Joe Biden veered from the usual script by saying that his country had a commitment to militarily defend Taiwan in the event of any attack by China.

Taiwan, which China views as part of its sovereign territory, lies just 100 kilometers from Japan’s westernmost island of Yonaguni, and concerns have been raised that Biden’s forthright words could put pacifist Japan, which counts the U.S. as its principal defense partner, in an uncomfortable position.

Tuesday’s policy plan mentioned Taiwan in its notes, rather than in the main body of the text itself. The note emphasized the “importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” — which it described as “an essential element for regional prosperity” — while promoting a peaceful solution to the cross-strait issue.

Tokyo has also warned of the threat from nuclear-armed North Korea, which fired off a volley of eight short-range ballistic missiles Sunday, triggering fears it could be practicing maneuvers that would help it overwhelm Japanese missile defenses.

The display of military muscle was Pyongyang’s second firing of a barrage of missiles since Biden wrapped up his visit to East Asia on May 24 and comes as North Korea looks set to conduct a seventh nuclear test.

In the wake of Biden’s trip, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had grown increasingly vocal in advocating for a defense budget hike to 2% of GDP, as the LDP’s late April proposal recommended. The current defense budget totals about ¥5.4 trillion — falling below the unspoken 1% of GDP barrier.

Abe, however, has pointed to spending of over ¥6.5 trillion as a more appropriate level, in view of what the government says is “an increasingly fraught security environment.” The 2% of GDP target was “natural,” he said following the initial recommendation, echoing calls from the U.S. that Japan beef up its defense spending.

But amid opposition to a significant defense budget hike within both the LDP and junior coalition partner Komeito, the Kishida Cabinet — wary of disunity ahead of next month’s Upper House election — stopped short of identifying a specific spending target.

Corey Wallace, an expert on Japanese politics and assistant professor at Kanagawa University, said the “incremental” move was “definitely a compromise” within the ruling coalition, particularly in the LDP itself.

“The idea of switching too quickly to 2% of GDP ... that's something that you don’t want to force this close to a very important election,” Wallace said.

“You actually do need to do things to some degree incrementally,” he added. “You need to put in, for example, the organization or infrastructure” to make such a huge shift.

“We’ll just have to wait and see exactly what that target will be within five years,” he said.