The Russian invasion of Ukraine may feel like a geographically and psychologically distant crisis for many in Japan, but in Hokkaido, a series of recent events have raised concerns and reminded residents of just how close they are to Russia.
While there was little local political or media reaction in Hokkaido on Friday to Thursday’s news that two Russian submarines had recently test-fired cruise missiles in the Sea of Japan, more visible demonstrations of Russian military power are generating concerns among residents. That is especially true in eastern Hokkaido, where four Russian-held, Japanese-claimed islands are visible.
“In recent years, Russian military activities, including the deployment of state-of-the-art equipment and training exercises, have tended to increase in the vicinity of Japan,” Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi told reporters on Friday.
The islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia, are very much in Hokkaido’s vicinity.
One of the Habomai islets is just 3.7 kilometers from Nemuro in southeastern Hokkaido. Kunashiri, meanwhile, lies 16 kilometers from Japan's northernmost main island and can easily be seen from Nemuro as well as from the fishing port of Rausu in the northeast. Shikotan is 73.3 kilometers away, while Etorofu is 144.5 kilometers off Hokkaido.
In early March, what is believed to have been a Russian helicopter violated Japanese airspace over the Nemuro Peninsula. The Defense Ministry said the aircraft came from the Northern Territories and was heading south.
The Air Self-Defense Forces were scrambled, and the helicopter exited Japanese airspace in under a minute, the ministry said. It was the first time the ministry had publicly announced a Russian incursion into Japanese airspace since September 2021, when a Russian aircraft flew over Cape Shiretoko in northeastern Hokkaido.
Then, following an announcement by Russia's Interfax News Agency on March 25, a military exercise took place in the Northern Territories that involved more than 3,000 troops. Although no exact location has been provided, Japanese media said it was likely to have taken place on the two largest islands of Etorofu and Kunashiri, where there are military garrisons. Russian media reported that the exercise was conducted on the basis of a hypothetical enemy landing on the islands.
Five days later on the night of March 30, Nemuro residents spotted lights in the direction of Kunashiri and could hear what sounded like thunder in the distance. Video taken by witnesses in the city showed flashes of orange light in the distance. A local coast guard unit said one of its patrol vessels observed what appeared to be flares in the vicinity of Kunashiri.
The coast guard had been notified in February that live fire drills would be taking place in southeastern Kunashiri as part of the exercises.
On April 1, Russia announced yet another military exercise in the Northern Territories, this time one involving 1,000 troops as well as anti-tank missile systems and artillery training, prompting the Hokkaido governor to make an appeal to the central government.
“Russia’s intensification of military actions in areas around Hokkaido are a threat to Japanese lives and property, and to Japanese territory and territorial waters,” Hokkaido Gov. Naomichi Suzuki said on April 7, calling for both increased vigilance and diplomatic negotiations so Russia restrains itself.
Meanwhile, elements of Russia’s political world are intensifying their rhetoric toward Japan and, specifically, Hokkaido.
On April 1, Sergey Mironov, the leader of political faction A Just Russia, which is allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, ratcheted tensions up further. Mironov said on the party’s website that, according to some experts, Russia has the right to all of Hokkaido, not only the Northern Territories.
While Russia’s military movements in and around Hokkaido over the past few months have heightened concerns, Hokkaido has long been wary of its neighbor. Russia invaded the Northern Territories in August 1945, at the very end of the Second World War, and the two nations have never signed a formal peace treaty ending hostilities between them.
Japan’s tough sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have further raised tensions between the two countries. But Hokkaido’s proximity to the Northern Territories means that residents there have been directly seeing and hearing the results of those tensions in a way other prefectures have not.
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