The scandal embroiling Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration may be more serious than some investors realize, raising the potential for a rapid move in Japanese markets to discount the potential for a surprise end to the champions of Abenomics.
While Abe has faced down political controversy and public protests repeatedly in his more than five years in power, the doctoring of a Finance Ministry document relating to a controversial land sale presents a more serious threat, according to political analysts. And at this point, markets haven't priced in the idea of a resignation by stalwart Abe supporter Taro Aso, the finance minister, or the potential for Abe to lose office later this year.
"For global investors, Abenomics equals a higher dollar-yen, a higher Nikkei and a better Japanese economy," said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan markets research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. "The perception of foreign investors will change drastically" if it looks like Abe will be forced from power, said Sasaki, who previously worked at the Bank of Japan.