Japan's average temperature forecast to rise 3.5 degrees by end of century


Japan’s average annual temperature between 2076 and 2095 is projected to rise by 2.5 to 3.5 degrees compared with the 1980-1999 period, while flash downpours will be more frequent, the Meteorological Agency said Friday.

The agency presented its views in a report about the current state and future outlook on abnormal weather and climate change in Japan and around the world, taking stock of a U.N. report unveiled in November and the latest research.

Annual temperatures here have outpaced the increase in the global average since data began to be collected in the late 19th century, the agency said, adding that since the 1990s, high annual temperatures have been frequently logged.

It attributed the phenomenon to changes in the natural environment that repeat every several years to several decades, coupled with a long-term ascent of temperatures caused by increasing emissions of global warming gases, such as carbon dioxide.

The “abnormal weather report” cited a claim by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.N. body, that temperatures will continue rising globally under all four scenarios for emission outputs in the years to come.

As for precipitation, no long-term changes are anticipated on an annual basis both in the world and in Japan, the agency said. Japan, however, is forecast to see a rise in the number of days with heavy rainfall, from 100 mm or 200 mm.

Conversely, the number of days without precipitation will tend to increase, it said, noting “the possibility of warming having an impact” on vapor content in the air and other factors.

Global precipitation is forecast to increase slowly in the years ahead, the agency said. Annual rainfall in Japan will increase by around 5 percent in the latter years of the century and rainfall of 50 mm or more per hour will be more frequent each year, it said.