When Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's successor takes office next month, analysts say China will be focusing on one point -- whether the new leader will visit Yasukuni Shrine.
While other issues, including a heated dispute over gas exploration rights in the East China Sea, lie unresolved, the shrine visits are the main factor determining whether the two neighbors can start mending relations that have sunk to their lowest level in decades, the analysts said.
"Chinese leaders have made this the most important test," said Joseph Cheng, a professor at City University of Hong Kong. "If the successor visits Yasukuni Shrine, it will be extremely difficult for relations to improve."
China has criticized Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni, which enshrines 14 Class-A war criminals as well as 2.5 million war dead. Beijing said the trips are a sign Japan does not repent its militarist past, a claim that Tokyo rejects. To protest the visit, China has refused to hold summits with Japan.