The center holds as Europe’s far right surges

The far right appears to be the winner of the just held European parliamentary elections.

While the conservative center continues to control European Union institutions, a surge in support among more extreme elements of the right has alarm bells ringing. Populism is on the rise in Europe — as it is elsewhere in the world — and leaders are struggling with ways to mute its impact.

For much of the world, the results will have limited effect. There appears to be growing fatigue with the war in Ukraine, but there is no indication of a readiness to abandon that fight. Nor is there evidence of a willingness to accommodate China as it seeks to expand its influence. Europe will continue to resist Beijing’s pressure and predation. Japan should welcome both outcomes.

Europe holds elections for the European Parliament every five years, with tallies in every member country. This year, more than 370 million voters picked 720 representatives that serve in Brussels and Strasbourg. Those lawmakers have limited responsibilities. They vote on or amend laws (they cannot initiate them), approve the EU budget and approve the selection of the head of the European Commission, the EU chief executive. A little more than half of those voters turned out: 51% cast ballots, slightly more than the 50.66% that voted in 2019, but considerably less than the 71% predicted by pre-election surveys.

In the most recent vote, center-right parties are expected to hold on to their current majority. Preliminary results show the European People’s Party, a center right group, with 189 seats; Socialists and Democrats will hold 135, and the liberal Renew group has 79. The Greens are expected to lose nearly a third of their seats, falling from 71 to 53.

The far right is represented by two groups, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID); with 76 and 58 seats respectively, they picked up 13 seats and are now the third-largest group in the assembly, trailing the left.

Those gains come from the left side of the spectrum — the Greens and Renew — rather than from disaffected centrists moving further right. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, rightly noted that “The center is holding.”

The shocks were strongest in Europe’s three largest countries. In France, the far-right National Rally, headed by Marine Le Pen, won over 30% of the vote, more than twice that of Renaissance, the centrist party founded by President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron promptly called a snap election, even before the final tally was in, reasoning that a stark choice would force sobriety on the French voter. Even if these results prove to be more than a mere protest vote and the same outcome occurs, he is betting that governing will significantly tarnish the National Rally’s image. (The president’s term will continue no matter the parliamentary result.)

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party topped the list with just over 28% of the vote, improving over the 2019 ballot and the country’s national election in 2022. That showing confirmed that Meloni is a key player in European politics and a leader of the conservative movement around the world.

One of the biggest losers is German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. His center-left Social Democrats party is expected to finish third, trailing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is set to come in second with around 16% of the vote, up from 11% in the last tally, despite some major scandals. (The conservative opposition CDU-CSU got the most votes.) Far-right parties also won big in Austria (forecast to finish first), the Netherlands, Cyprus and Greece. They were the biggest winners in Poland and Hungary as well, even though they lost seats compared to the 2019 vote.

If there is an alignment of views among these parties, it is on issues like immigration. These politicians see their countries as threatened by an influx of foreigners and want to tighten borders to prevent them from gaining access, which could threaten jobs or somehow create social instability.

These parties are also skeptical, if not contemptuous, of green policies. Their focus is economic issues and they believe that efforts to protect the environment will come at the expense of growth and prosperity. They object to the EU’s “Green New Deal,” which aims for zero emissions by 2050. They are unlikely to get the EU to abandon this goal but they can slow the adjustment process. Polls that showed falling support for "climate change" as a policy priority were a harbinger of these election results.

The far right is no monolith, however. National parties have their own policies and preferences, with divisions on most, if not every, issue. In some cases, members of the far right have explicitly distanced themselves from like-minded parties in other countries.

Broadly speaking, European Conservatives and Reformists politicians align with the EU mainstream and back Ukraine, while members of the Identity and Democracy Group tend to be pro-Russian. So, for example, Italy’s Meloni has been more supportive of aid to Ukraine than has Le Pen. She has also backed a bigger role for NATO in Europe while Le Pen has taken the traditional French position in favor of “strategic autonomy” still further.

There are also divisions over Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Fortunately, polls consistently show a majority of Europeans support aid to Ukraine, even though those numbers have fallen, and wariness about Russia and its leader’s ambitions.

While there are divisions over China as well, there appears to be a stronger consensus on this issue. European governments question Beijing’s commitment to free and fair trade and worry that its aid to Chinese businesses undermine European companies’ competitiveness. Policies to de-risk supply chains will continue as will pressure to follow the law in international trade.

If trade issues remain a priority, human rights concerns will likely shrink in importance. In this, as so many other areas, bread-and-butter issues will take precedence over values. This aligns with Japanese thinking about international priorities.

The vote has struck a blow to the legitimacy of the Group of Seven industrialized nations, the summit of which is being held now in Italy. The host, Meloni, is one of the few members that retains considerable standing on the global stage. Macron and Scholz have been damaged by the EU vote, while all the other members — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, U.S. President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — are struggling to win support at home. It’s hard to take seriously the declarations of a group whose leaders are all likely to be replaced in a short period of time. Who can they claim to represent?

Their countries are all grappling with a growing sense of disappointment and confusion that challenges their commitment to liberalism and the world as we know it. Europe’s recent ballots are a warning. Elected leaders must respond to the daily difficulties that undermine trust or future elections will return even more alarming results.