Biden-Xi meeting long on symbolism, short on substance

It is an indication of the state of U.S.-China relations that confirmation of the long-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping occurred only days before their summit, even though the date for that conversation had been set months in advance.

Mounting tensions and fraying relations made their meeting an imperative but they also meant that expectations had to be lowered as well.

Those diminished expectations were met. The two men affirmed the need for clear, direct communication and agreed that the increasingly intense competition between the U.S. and China must be bounded to prevent it from becoming an open conflict. This week’s meeting aimed to set a floor under the bilateral relationship; only time will tell if it succeeded. Their language indicated that Biden and Xi understand the challenge; the agreements they reached suggests that the downward trajectory may have been stopped, but there are few grounds for optimism.

While the two men have known each other for some time — Biden frequently mentions their long relationship — the two had their first in-person meeting as leaders of their respective countries on the sidelines of last year’s Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. At the time, they agreed to establish guardrails and “rules of the road” for their increasingly tense relationship.

Whatever hopes that might have generated dissipated three months later when an alleged Chinese spy balloon flew over North America and was shot down by a U.S. fighter jet once it cleared the U.S. mainland. Since then, differences have metastasized as the two governments clashed over Taiwan, trade, maritime security, human rights and a host of other issues.

Biden stated the obvious when he told Xi that it is “paramount” that the two men “understand each other clearly ... with no misconceptions or miscommunication” and “ensure that competition does not veer into conflict.” Xi agreed, adding that “turning our backs on one another is not an option.”

The summit produced two major agreements and some minor achievements. U.S. officials say the most significant outcome is the establishment of a bilateral working group on counter-narcotics. U.S. sources said that China has agreed in principle to crack down on the export to Mexico of chemicals used to make fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills an estimated 150 people a day in the U.S.

The second substantive agreement calls for the resumption of communications between the two countries’ militaries “on the basis of equality and respect” so that they are better prepared if there is an incident that could escalate to conflict. Previous channels were shut down by Beijing last year in protest over the visit to Taiwan of then-U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

The two militaries have come in ever-closer proximity as China expands its claim to the South China Sea and the U.S. and its allies conduct surveillance exercises and freedom of navigation exercises to assert their right of passage through contested areas. The prospect of an incident has also grown in tandem with tensions between China and Taiwan.

U.S. officials, from Secretary of State Antony Blinken on down, have warned of dangerous maneuvers by Chinese forces, even releasing graphic video of the incidents. According to a recent report by the U.S. Department of Defense, there have been more “coercive and risky” flybys by the Chinese military in the past two years than in the past decade. China counters that there would be no danger if the U.S. wasn’t present; for Beijing, U.S. forces that challenge Chinese national interests are the source of any danger.

The two sides also reportedly agreed to establish a bilateral dialogue on artificial intelligence and to “dramatically increase” the number of commercial flights between the countries. The day before the summit, the two nations’ climate envoys agreed to step up cooperation on climate issues and “operationalize” the Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s.

Afterward, Biden called the talks “some of the most constructive and productive discussions we’ve had.” Xi returned to the Chinese call for “respect,” noting that “planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed.”

The Earth is big, but so too are the frictions between the two countries. Each country sees the other as its most significant long-term challenge. And China is far more reticent about saying so directly but it is no less committed to competition and prevailing.

So, while U.S. officials said that they expect high-level military-to-military communications, such as “telephone conversations between the theater commanders,” to resume after the meeting, China’s resistance persists. Beijing has made it clear that what Washington calls a crisis management mechanism it considers a vehicle to enable bad behavior by the U.S. China has been quick to cut those links when it is angry — as was the case following Pelosi’s visit — which is when they are most needed. History is likely to repeat itself.

That is because there is no indication that the two sides have reached consensus on two of the most important issues in their relationship, Taiwan and trade in high-technology goods.

The island’s relationship with Beijing remains the “most important and sensitive” issue in U.S.-China relations, said Xi. He called on Biden to “take real actions to honor its commitment of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence,’ stop arming Taiwan and support China's peaceful reunification,” which he said is “unstoppable.” He denied that an invasion of the island was being planned.

Biden did not bend, however. The U.S. continues to support the right of the 23 million Taiwanese people to determine their own future and the U.S. president called on China to not interfere in the island’s upcoming presidential election, which will take place next January. That gulf fuels mutual suspicions that manifest in the steady increase in military actions and tensions.

Xi also complained that U.S. actions to deny China access to high technology goods “seriously damaged China’s legitimate interests.” He asked the U.S. to lift its sanctions and create a “fair, just and nondiscriminatory environment” for Chinese companies. Xi said China had “no plans to surpass or replace the U.S. and the U.S. should not intend to suppress or contain China.” The U.S. has repeatedly denied that it seeks to contain China — its policies aim to thwart development of PLA military capabilities — but officials have also made clear that there will be no loosening of the trade restrictions.

In short, little was accomplished at this week’s meeting and even those accomplishments could be quickly undone. Yet even if it was long on symbolism and short on substance, the two leaders should be meeting. They need to continue to search for common ground and the consensus that has been so elusive. We can only hope that China’s leaders understand the need for similar progress with Japan.