Although the global economy has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war and other severe challenges, cracks in the foundation are beginning to appear.

The October 2025 update of the Brookings-FT TIGER (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) reveals an economic landscape that seems benign in some ways, but unsettled in others, with household and business confidence weighed down by uncertainty about trade policy, political upheavals in many countries and geopolitical volatility.

Advanced economies are grappling with rising debt burdens, aging populations and political gridlock, while emerging-market economies, despite being helped somewhat by a weaker dollar (which alleviates financing pressures), are showing signs of strain.