Why LDP elder Nikai's announcement is a big deal (and isn't)

This week, embattled Liberal Democratic Party faction head Toshihiro Nikai announced that he will not be running in the next Lower House election.

His statement to the press at the LDP headquarters on Monday came as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida contemplates punishment for other senior lawmakers who, like Nikai, are implicated in the faction money scandal that continues to plague the party.

In some ways, this is a significant announcement as it will expedite generational change in the LDP and start the chain of events that may see other dominoes fall. In others, it is politics as usual for the party as a deeper examination reveals that Nikai's announcement is more about preservation of legacy and dynasty than mending public trust.

Nikai is a heavyweight in the LDP and for the past 12 years he led one of the largest factions in the party. He owns the distinction of being the longest serving LDP secretary-general spanning the Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga administrations. He was a key figure in fostering better Sino-Japanese relations, leading several parliamentary delegations in engagements with Chinese counterparts and advocating for policies that sought to improve ties with the neighboring country.

But above all else, Nikai is a politician through and through. His ability to hold onto the secretary-general billet for as long as he did came because he vouched for Abe and Suga early and often, putting the full weight of his faction behind them with few demands in return. He built up his faction with a focus on quantity over quality, understanding that numbers meant more than substance in bolstering his intraparty standing.

However, this often led to disastrous political appointments from the Nikai faction, such as a cybersecurity minister who did not know how to use a computer or a Northern Territories minister who could not remember the names of some of the islands.

The money scandal left the party elder in a precarious position. The use of slush funds had accelerated during his long tenure as secretary-general and both he and his faction are heavily implicated in the practice. With the Kishida faction bearing down on senior party members involved in the financial kickbacks scheme, Nikai had a choice: Get ahead of the prime minister's decision-making or fall victim to it. Nikai has played the game long enough to know which was the better option.

Nikai took the proactive approach, calling the prime minister to notify him of his decision not to run in the next election and making it public. Nikai also asserted that this decision had nothing to do with the money scandal or the punishment that the prime minister is considering for senior officials involved in financial improprieties. Ultimately, it was a bold move to insulate himself and those close to him from further scrutiny.

In the broader context of the nation’s political landscape, Nikai’s decision is significant for a few reasons. First, it speeds along generational change in the LDP, the last of which happened in 2012 when several senior party members stepped aside for others like Shigeru Ishiba, Abe, Suga, Nikai and Kishida to rise to prominence. With Nikai now stepping down, it means that someone else will fill the vacuum he leaves behind.

Nikai’s departure also signals the death of his faction. While the LDP has already done away with factions in name, there are still vestiges left behind. With the party heavyweight stepping aside in the next election, it means that his bloc will be without its chief benefactor — and there are none within the faction who can wield as much influence as Nikai once did. Those who were previously affiliated with his faction will be looking for new patrons inside the party, presenting an opportunity for those seeking to succeed Kishida in the next LDP presidential race.

This decision also carries significant implications for other party members implicated in the funding controvery. The party had already been considering removing its endorsement in the next general election for senior politicians implicated in the scandal and Nikai’s tacit acceptance of that punishment now sets that as the standard. While the LDP may not go forward in imposing this standard, there will still be unspoken expectations based on his example.

Nikai’s sudden announcement may have come as a surprise, but in the end, this is politics as usual for the LDP. After all, the veteran politician is 85 and might not have run in the next election anyway since he has two children who are waiting to succeed him. The fallout from the scandal likely made his decision to bow out easier and Nikai can now focus on salvaging his legacy by passing the torch to one of his sons just as so many other LDP politicians have done before.

Incidentally, Nikai’s move is doubly beneficial for his successor by shielding his sons from scrutiny while holding a potential challenger at bay. His decision to stay ahead of any disciplinary action insulates his successor from the potential fallout that would have come had Nikai received direct punishment for his involvement in the money scandal.

Nikai’s decision also imposes a major obstacle for Hiroshige Seko, a prominent LDP politician who has his eyes on the long-serving politician's district seat. Seko is hoping to transition from the Upper House to the Lower House and make a run for the prime minister’s seat, but he is one of four senior LDP members who is facing punishment for the factions money scandal. The example that Nikai set by stepping aside will adversely impact Seko if he decides to run in the next Lower House election, giving his son a useful cushion for securing the district seat that will be vacated.

Ultimately, Nikai’s decision was bold and important, but it was just another move by a wily politician who well understands how to play the game. It changes the dynamics both for the Kishida administration as it contemplates punishments and for the individual politicians who are seeking to salvage their careers. And while it will disrupt the plans for many in the LDP, it only bolsters the prospects for Nikai’s dynasty despite his own ties to the money scandal.