Tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States quickly went from fast track and MAGA hat photo ops in the Oval Office to a long game with no end in sight, one that some academics and economic observers see possibly devolving into an unpleasant and unproductive stalemate.

To a certain extent, it all went south when Tokyo realized that the two sides were talking around each other.

Japan wants to negotiate the end to all the new tariffs put into place by U.S. President Donald Trump, including a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% rate on cars, car parts, steel and aluminum. The United States has signaled that it first wants to discuss the higher "reciprocal" tariff — 24% for Japan — and get concessions in exchange for not making that rate effective in July.

The backslapping and bonhomie was well and truly over when it dawned on Japan that this means the U.S. has no intention of seriously talking about duties on automobiles right now.

“That’s when the tone changed and they really stiffened their backs," said Richard Katz, a long-time Japan observer and author of “The Contest for Japan's Economic Future.”

"They realized that any deal they got is going to be really an awful deal."

He argues that the United States gave Japan priority at first because it thought that the negotiators from Tokyo would give in easily and readily agree to demands. This, Katz continues, might have created a sort of prisoner's dilemma situation for other nations. Japan cracking quickly would put them under pressure to follow.

"If Japan caved, that would set the pattern,” Katz said.

For Japan, and for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, getting tariffs on automobiles removed is a top priority. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and others have said that these must be eliminated, and that no agreement can be reached without putting all tariffs on the table.

Economics and political reality make Japan's position on auto tariffs more or less nonnegotiable. The country exported more than 1.33 million passenger cars to the U.S. in 2024, which is roughly 30% of its total exports to the country.

“No matter what administration is in power — be it an Ishiba-led one or anyone else’s — if they can’t eliminate or drastically ease tariffs on automobiles, the LDP government will not survive,” said Ryo Sahashi, an international relations professor at the University of Tokyo.

Sahashi doesn't object to a long-game strategy per se. What concerns him is how this will play out when the other side is so unpredictable. He worries that Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's chief tariff negotiator, might agree to a package deal in which Japan offers as many concessions as possible in exchange for a win, only to have the Trump administration ask for more later.

“The current Japanese government seems to think that if they can pull off this one trade negotiation, everything will be fine for the next 3½ years,” Sahashi said. “It’s not that I’m saying Akazawa is dreaming. Negotiating is his prerogative. But really, all I can say is: good luck. Because for me, the greatest fear is ending up with a half-baked deal."

News reports have mentioned investment in a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska, cooperation in shipbuilding, importing more American soybeans and corn, and easing safety standards on U.S. car imports as possible concessions from Japan.

“If they do a single round of talks and Japan plays all its cards in one package — agreeing to Alaskan LNG, shipbuilding cooperation, etc — by the second half of the year or next year, there might be another round of trade talks anyway,” Sahashi warned.

Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, predicted recently that rising domestic prices and turbulence in the financial markets could force the U.S. president to roll back the tariff scheme as early as this fall.

But to solely rely on the financial markets to force Trump to retreat might be unrealistic, Katz warned, especially when the markets have repeatedly shown a tendency to overreact to every tiny concession Trump makes.

“Trump threatens to cut off both of your arms, and then he only cuts off one arm. The financial markets say ‘Great! Whoa! Terrific! We won! Trump surrendered — he’s only cutting off one arm!’” Katz said. “Financial markets are really manic depressive. They gyrate much more than the underlying reality.”

To coordinate a united front with other countries could be a way out, Katz suggested. He added that it's a matter of getting the balance right so that some sort of pressure can be applied without actually retaliating.

“You could agree that none of us will make a deal unless autos are included, which doesn't mean you agree to retaliate, but you could agree that unless autos are put on the table, none of us do it,” Katz said. “That would be just one example.”

“The point is that because Trump wants to look like a winner, and if you want the financial markets to be an ally — which I think is a good strategy — then you have to give them some reason to be upset with Trump.”

Sahashi wonders whether delaying future talks could be an option. If the U.S. is not going to discuss lowering what's on the table, standing up to them might actually be easier to explain to the people and win more domestic support.

"That’s why we should confidently say we’re delaying the talks. We can say that we’ve at least secured the condition that the 14% tariff won’t apply, but beyond that, tariffs will remain, including those on automobiles. We’ll tell people to bear with us because a bad deal would be worse,” Sahashi said.

“Maybe this time, Japan will show some backbone again.”