Since sumo moved to its current 15-bout tournament schedule in 1939, the lowest score that has ever been good enough to lift the Emperor’s Cup is 11 wins and four losses.

Incredibly, over the 84 years since that expansion, there has only been a single tournament in which the makuuchi division champion has failed to win at least 12 fights over the course of 15 days, not including the truncated tournaments at the end of, and immediately following, World War II.

Of course, Musashimaru and Harumafuji took the top division title in November 1996 and September 2017, respectively, with 11-4 records, but both men also won additional playoff bouts during those tournaments.

Six years ago, the ninth, and final, championship of Harumafuji’s career required two final-day victories over ozeki Goeido to prevent the latter from claiming consecutive autumn basho titles.

The second of those wins — Harumafuji’s 12th of the tournament — turned out to be the final one of his career, with the Mongolian-born yokozuna’s assault of another wrestler forcing an early retirement just a couple of months later.

Musashimaru, meanwhile, won three straight bouts during a five-man playoff in late 1996 to claim a second Emperor’s Cup and give him a total of 14 wins over the course of 15 days.

Only Tochiazuma, father of the current Tamanoi Beya stablemaster, has claimed sumo’s greatest prize with 11 total wins (including playoffs) over a 15-day meet. The slender sekiwake managed the feat in January 1972.

It has been more than half a century since that unique event took place, but a repeat could be on the cards this month.

That might seem a strange claim to make given that Atamifuji enters Day 12 of the Autumn Grand Sumo Tournament having won 10 of his first 11 bouts.

The 21-year-old has been on fire since returning to the top flight, and, at first glance, seems a good bet to continue that title charge through Sunday. But a relatively easy slate thus far could make his record deceptive.

Ranked at maegashira 15, Atamifuji didn’t face anyone in the upper half of makuuchi until meeting komusubi Tobizaru on Day 11.

The Isegahama stable youngster lost nine straight bouts in his only other appearance in sumo’s top tier, and with tougher opponents likely to be scheduled over the final four days, a late collapse not only can’t be ruled out, but may actually be the most likely outcome.

While none of the sport's heavy hitters are performing well this month, facing off against ozeki and sekiwake with the title on the line is a high-pressure situation that has overwhelmed many outstanding wrestlers — especially those finding themselves in the limelight for the first time.

That wouldn’t be an ending anyone involved with the sport wants to see.

The ideal outcome for sumo would be Atamifuji overcoming any jitters that may arise, and giving fans another popular young rikishi to cheer for as he climbs toward sumo’s summit.

The good news is that the Shizuoka Prefecture native has a two-win buffer with four days left and has already defeated two of the chasing trio. Even a split of his remaining slate will guarantee a playoff at worst, and could well be enough to win the Emperor’s Cup outright.

Should the pressure and increased competition level put out Atamifuji’s fire, a single win might still suffice, and put the youngster in one of sumo’s rarest clubs.

While the prospect of a 21-year-old who had gone 4-11 in his only previous top tier tournament bouncing back to win the title is exciting, and a collapse leading to a historically low championship score offers an intriguing alternative ending, neither outcome reflects well on sumo’s upper tiers.

Going into the September tournament, the hope was that Hoshoryu would build on a debut title that earned the Ulaanbaatar native promotion to ozeki and give the sport a much needed young and powerful champion at the top of the banzuke.

In the absence of yokozuna Terunofuji, Hoshoryu seemed set to contest the Emperor’s Cup with an in-form Kiribayama, himself recently promoted to sumo’s second-highest rank.

Instead, the pair, along with the entire upper half of makuuchi, has been mired in mediocrity since the meet kicked off.

The fact that ozeki Takakeisho’s 8-3 record is unmatched by anyone among the 21 highest ranked wrestlers in the sport is a damning indictment of sumo’s upper echelons in late 2023.

Recently retired Tokushoryu is the only man not named Hakuho or Terunofuji to win at least 14 bouts in the past four years, while 12 victories has been good enough to lift the Emperor’s Cup in seven of the last 10 tournaments.

Should Atamifuji give sumo yet another debutant champion it will provide a slight boost, but novel winners can only continue to engage the public’s interest if they remain rare. A parade of rikishi popping into the spotlight only to disappear back into the morass of parity just as quickly isn’t good for a sport in need of stars.

At just 21 and with a fairly rapid ascent up the rankings since making his debut in 2020, there is every possibility that Atamifuji is just taking the first steps toward eventual stardom.

Should the youngster, like so many before him, hit a wall when matched up for the first time against the sanyaku ranks, the possibility of seeing something that hasn’t happened in over half a century offers the possibility of a unique consolation prize.