When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, few expected resistance to last longer than a few days.

In both Russia and the West, Russian troops were expected to sweep into Kyiv, parade uniforms in hand, install a proxy government and effectively end Ukrainian statehood.

But whereas Western leaders believed that Ukraine was no match for Russia militarily, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence in a swift victory rested on a more fundamental assumption: Ukrainians would have little will to resist because they had never actually existed. In Putin’s eyes, Ukraine’s history and identity were so bound up with Russia that its people would have no reason to risk their lives and property for the sake of sovereignty.