I’m trying hard to stay optimistic about Ukraine’s imminent spring offensive against the Russian invaders. But the recent news flow, though ambiguous, raises concerns.

How strong are the Ukrainians, really, and will the Russians be able to exploit their weaknesses? And how cohesive is the alliance of Kyiv’s supporters? If the Ukrainians can’t break the stalemate soon, will their friends start drifting off?

Only a couple of months ago, the outlook seemed better. Ukraine had scored dramatic tactical victories and dug in for a hard winter. Then Germany, the U.K., Poland, the U.S. and other allies decided to send heavy battle tanks in preparation for spring. Some of those, including the first batch of German-made Leopard 2s, have now arrived at the front. Thus equipped, the Ukrainians should — right about now — be able to turn a static war of attrition into a kinetic war of reconquest, it was hoped.

That may yet happen. But it also might not. A huge internet leak of American intelligence — mainly in the form of photos of Pentagon slides and documents — hasn’t revealed a whole lot we didn’t know already, but just enough to cause apprehension.

The banal part of the leak is that it made clear once again — Edward Snowden already proved this in 2013 — that the Americans are spying on foe (Russia) and friend alike — including Ukraine and allies such as South Korea and Israel. But so do all countries that have the capability, including those acting sanctimoniously until they’re caught.

Nor should the bizarre estimates of Russian and Ukrainian casualties be taken very seriously. Whoever circulated the data clearly wanted to hurt Ukraine, the U.S. and the West, while helping the Kremlin. So they doctored the numbers, manipulating the estimates downward for the Russians and upward for the Ukrainians. In reality, America’s spy services still believe that about twice as many Russians as Ukrainians have been killed or wounded.

The more disturbing insight from the leak is that the Americans are evidently concerned about the Ukrainians’ military weaknesses, especially their insufficient air defenses and low stocks of ammunition. Some of the documents suggest the Ukrainians could run out of certain types of missiles within weeks. If correct, these assessments could help the Russians hit the Ukrainians exactly where it hurts. Not a promising start to a Ukrainian offensive.

This airing of secret American anxieties about Ukrainian martial stamina could also cause some of Ukraine’s less committed supporters in the U.S. and Europe to lose heart. The longer the war drags on, the harder it’ll become to maintain Western unity and resolve and to sway countries in the "Global South” to line up behind Kyiv.

In that sense, any sign of discord among the Western allies is bad news for Ukraine. That’s true whether the subject is Kyiv’s war of self-defense against Moscow or the democratic West’s joint stance against Russia’s most powerful "friend,” China.

Enter French President Emmanuel Macron, a sort of loose-tongued diplomatic wrecking ball. Before the Russian invasion, he gained notoriety for calling NATO "brain dead” (hardly what Finns, the alliance’s newest members, would say). Since the Kremlin’s attack, he’s worried aloud about the risk of "humiliating” Russian President Vladimir Putin — a surprising priority when Ukrainians are fighting for national survival.

And now he’s kowtowed to Beijing, just as Washington keeps urging its European allies to "decouple” from China. Talking to reporters on the plane back from a visit recently, Macron gave a glimpse into his worldview. He doesn’t want Europe (that is, France) to become "vassals” to the U.S..

Come again? The French mixture of inferiority and superiority complexes toward the "Anglo-Saxon” U.S. and U.K. has been a staple of geopolitics at least since Charles de Gaulle. But even Macron might admit that we face bigger issues these days. One of those is Taiwan, which mainland China might attack and the U.S. — and other democracies — may have to defend, just as they’re siding with Ukraine. Macron has made clear he doesn’t want Europe to get sucked into such a conflict.

For his strategic confusion, Macron has deservedly earned himself a storm of effluent from Warsaw to Washington. "Does Macron speak for all of Europe?,” wonders Marco Rubio, a Republican U.S. Senator. (Fortunately, the French president does not.) If America’s allies keep sending such mixed signals on keeping peace in the Pacific, Rubio said, then "you guys handle Ukraine.”

Ouch. Everyone knows that Ukraine only stands a chance and Europe only stays secure as long as America remains committed to the continent.

Ukraine’s war of self-defense, as it progresses into its second year, remains entirely unpredictable. Some of Kyiv’s allies are growing fatigued and Ukraine’s army and ammo are often near exhaustion. Fortunately, the Ukrainians still have their heroic will to fight the aggressors. For their spring offensive to succeed, they’ll need it.

Andreas Kluth is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European politics. He is author of "Hannibal and Me.”