Heading into 2020, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seemed poised for a strong, stable year atop Japan’s government. Many observers were debating whether the Liberal Democratic Party would change its rules to grant him a fourth term as party president, which on paper could have extended his run until 2024.
Nobody is debating that now. Instead, speculation is swirling that Abe is a lame duck and a snap election may be his only option to salvage what’s left of his prime ministership. Amid this speculation, there will be two questions in many minds: one, how long does Abe have left; and two, who might be poised to succeed him?
There is some merit to the arguments that Abe is on his way out. His approval ratings are hovering between 30 and 40 percent with disapproval ratings at nearly 60 percent depending on the polling source — the opposite from just six months ago. The primary driver for the drop has been the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, now symbolized by the oft-mocked “Abenomask” policy. Compounding the downturn were two prominent scandals: the high prosecutor scandal and the arrests of Katsuyuki and Anri Kawai over vote-buying.