It wasn't so long ago that Russian President Vladimir Putin looked like the geopolitical kingpin of the Middle East. In recent weeks, though, Russia has absorbed two major setbacks: First, a falling out with Turkey over Syria, and second, the onset of a vicious oil price war with Saudi Arabia and its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
It's too soon to say that Putin is losing the Middle East, where geopolitics have become especially fluid and challenging. But these events remind us that some of Russia's key relationships in the region are shallower and more transactional than they may appear. And that's not just in the Middle East. Putin is sometimes seen as a master chess player, but his geopolitical approach is often shortsighted and, over the longer run, potentially counterproductive. In other words, his style of statecraft isn't so different from U.S. President Donald Trump's.
Over the past several years, Putin had built an impressive geopolitical position in the Middle East. He skillfully employed Russian air power, mercenaries and proxies to shift the course of the Syrian civil war. He developed productive relationships with committed American adversaries such as Iran, as well as longtime U.S. allies and partners such as Israel, Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Putin exploited perceived American weakness to portray Russia as a strong, decisive actor. He took advantage of the region's instability to amass influence — or simply play the spoiler — at little cost.