A recent decision by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States was a fiasco. The unfortunate move was predictable, however, because it was the second security fiasco Manila has made in the last three decades.
The decision is a serious mistake for five reasons. First, it was impulsive. As in the 1930s, we have once again entered an era of uncertainty where decisions by intuition, coincidence and misjudgment prevail. U.S. President Donald Trump, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping all have made and will continue to make irreversibly wrong decisions. Now Duterte seems to have joined their ranks, although he has some rationale to challenge Washington.
The U.S.-Philippines VFA, signed in 1999, allows the U.S. to retain jurisdiction over U.S.military personnel who have been accused of crimes in the Philippines, unless the crimes are "of particular importance to the Philippines." Otherwise, the U.S. can refuse to detain or arrest the accused or may prosecute them under U.S. jurisdiction. Duterte, a nationalist politician, might have considered these provisions to be offensive, humiliating and extremely unfair. There are some good reasons for him to feel that way.