North Korea has captured the headlines twice in recent weeks. One instance was highly intriguing — the assassination of Kim Jong Un's half-brother in Malaysia. The other was highly significant. While the interesting has once again overshadowed the important, the medium-range ballistic missile launch constitutes the first real security test for the U.S. Trump administration. An effective response demands a clear understanding of the forces driving North Korean behavior. All too often, however, myths and misunderstandings dominate thinking about the North, so it's time to set the record straight.
Fact No. 1: Kim Jong Un is not irrational. The Kim family is anything but irrational. They have played a poor hand extremely well, defying international opinion, antagonizing allies and adversaries alike, and ignoring their chief benefactors. They have relentlessly pursued a narrowly defined national interest and shrugged off virtually every attempt to get them to change course or even compromise. Pyongyang has figured out how far it can go without prompting an overwhelming response. This is exceptional strategic thinking, not irrationality. No leader does anything that he or she thinks is irrational. When we call Kim irrational, we are really saying "we don't understand his rationale." Why does the North do what it does? Quite simply because (so far, at least) it's working!
Fact No. 2: North Korean tests are not provocations. While outright defiance of the international community is by definition provocative, the primary purpose of North Korean nuclear and missile tests is not to provoke; it's to advance its weapons programs. If a test overshadows the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Abe, that is icing on the cake. North Korea is happy to demonstrate that it is not intimidated by U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis' Asia visit or by a phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.