Among the many important international meetings earlier this month — the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the sit-downs among assembled heads of state on the sidelines, and the Group of 20 meeting in Australia — one of the most vital, surpassing even the long-anticipated encounter between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping, was the summit between Xi and U.S. President Barack Obama.
A relationship that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry recently called "the most consequential in the world today, period" has been deteriorating, battered by a series of incidents and mounting distrust and suspicion on both sides. This slide in relations is a vivid counterpoint to the high hopes created by the "shirt sleeves summit" between Obama and Xi in Sunnylands, California, a little over a year ago. Then, the two men agreed to establish a "new type of major country relations" that would channel and dissipate tensions created by China's rise and Beijing's claim to greater power and influence within East Asia.
Since then, relations have eroded, with Washington charging Beijing with hacking civilian and military computer systems and the theft of terabytes of information for economic espionage. Equally alarming has been Beijing's assertiveness in the East and South China Seas — the hallmark of a rising power — and its threat, real and potential, to freedom of navigation. Finally, the United States, along with other developed nations, worry about China's readiness to challenge established rules, norms and institutions of the global order. Beijing seems set on undermining existing mechanisms of global governance and either rewriting their operating principles or setting new ones.
For its part, Beijing fears that the U.S. has not, in fact, accepted the inevitability of China's rise. Instead, it is working to consolidate its hegemony in Asia, thwarting the expansion of China's influence and working with other nations, in particular its allies, to contain China. As a result of these two diverging perspectives, tensions between the two countries have been on the increase and policy makers in both capitals felt a need to arrest the slide in relations.
This larger context, atop China's desire to ensure that its hosting of APEC was an unqualified political and propaganda success, meant that the Xi-Obama meeting was destined to go well, with some agreements reached and fine words all around, In fact, however, the summit produced surprisingly positive results. While they may not be enough to halt the deterioration of relations, the bilateral agreements are significant and could, if implemented, prove genuine trophies for the U.S.-China relationship.
The two presidents announced their intention to accelerate negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty (BIT), an invaluable framework to ensure continued smooth integration of the world's two largest economies. While commercial interchange is no guarantee of peaceful relations, it can serve as an important shock absorber when frictions arise. Unfortunately, however, there is no deadline, revised or otherwise, for the BIT negotiations, so this agreement, while useful, is less impressive than it might sound. A similar agreement to move forward with and expand the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) is a welcome development after Beijing had held up talks for more than a year.
More concrete, and more immediately realizable, was agreement to proceed with two military confidence building measures — a Notification of Major Military Activities, which includes policy and strategy developments as well as observation of military exercises and activities, and Rules of Behavior for the Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters. These confidence building measures, along with an agreement to deepen military exchanges, will increase transparency and predictability and reduce the risk of unintended incidents, a growing possibility with increasing military activity in the seas surrounding China.
Perhaps most significant was the joint statement on climate change, in which the two countries announced their post-2020 greenhouse gas emissions targets, a deal in the works for over a year. Critics note that there is no real deal, but instead a pair of unilateral announcements, and opposition in the U.S. Congress is likely to render any U.S. statement a dead letter. That is true, but it breathes new life into stalled global climate change negotiations and helped push the G-20 to include climate change in its statement a week later.
There were also agreements to revise visa rules, offering 10-year visas for certain visitors to each country, as well as pledges to deepen cooperation on environmental protection, law enforcement cooperation, and counterterrorism, among other areas.
In remarks after the summit, Xi said the two countries will "continue to advance the development of a new model of major-country relations," an ambitious goal as the U.S. is increasingly skeptical of the concept, fearing that is cover for acceptance of Beijing's hegemony in East Asia.
In his remarks, Obama reaffirmed his country's support for "the continuing rise of a China that is peaceful, prosperous and stable and that plays a responsible role in the world." Finding common ground among those two perspectives is the key to a successful U.S.-China relationship. It is one that all concerned countries should hope that they succeed.
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