The U.N. Climate Change Conference is under way in Copenhagen with more than 15,000 participants, including delegates from 192 countries, attending. Its original goal was to conclude a new treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol and to set a global framework to curb greenhouse gas emissions between 2013 and 2020.
The Kyoto Protocol, which will expire in 2012, calls on the developed countries to reduce their total greenhouse gas emissions by 5 percent during the period 2008-2012 from 1990 levels. Emissions from these countries account for about 30 percent of global emissions.
Instead of the original goal, Denmark, chair of the current conference, in view of the difficulty of negotiations and time constraints, has called on the participating countries to produce a basic political agreement that will lead to the formation of a legally binding treaty shortly afterward.
Although the conference's goal has been downgraded, the participating nations of the conference should do their utmost to lay a foundation that will lead to concrete joint efforts to contain global warming and mitigate the impact of climate change, which will affect all humans and other forms of life on Earth. Japan should make strenuous efforts to form a meaningful accord. This is particularly important because it is feared that Japan's promise to cut greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent by 2020 from 1990s levels may lose steam.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that if the world fails to act quickly enough, the Earth's average temperature could over the coming century rise between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees C from the global-average temperature for the period 1980 to 1999. If this happens, up to 30 percent of all animal and plant life would face extinction by the end of this century, according to the panel. Also, many people are expected to become climate refugees because of drought, desertification, floods and rising sea levels.
While the Copenhagen conference is not likely to produce a legally binding treaty to follow the Kyoto Protocol, there has been some progress in that major gas-emitting countries have announced their respective numerical targets. The European Union would reduce emissions 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels and would raise the target to 30 percent if other major emitters present equally ambitious goals.
The United States would cut emissions 17 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels. China would trim emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels, and India would cut emissions per unit of GDP by 20 percent to 25 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels.
Although Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced that Japan would cut emissions by 25 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels, he has yet to make public the details of the seemingly ambitious target. The previous administration of Prime Minister Taro Aso set the goal of reducing Japan's emissions by 8 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels. This 8 percent cut represented a genuine reduction inside Japan and did not include absorption of carbon dioxide by forests and purchases of emissions rights from abroad. Mr. Hatoyama's 25 percent reduction includes purchases of emissions rights and absorption by forests. Mr. Hatoyama should soon clarify the ratio of a genuine emissions reduction inside Japan.
The U.S. and China together account for 40 percent of global emissions. The new framework for global emissions reductions will be ineffectual without their participation. Although the U.S.'s reductions target translates into only a 3 percent to 4 percent cut from 1990 levels, its return to global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions is significant. It is hoped that the U.S.'s presence will help to accelerate the climate change negotiations.
Although China and India will increase energy-use efficiency in producing each unit of GDP, the absolute amount of their emissions will likely increase due to their high economic growth. In order to get China, India and other developing countries positively involved in the global emissions cut efforts, it will be essential to work out an international mechanism that will prompt transfer of low-carbon technologies and provision of funds to those countries.
U.N. climate chief Yvo de Boer suggests that the developed countries will need to provide $10 billion to $12 billion a year through 2012 as fast-tracking funds. Although Japan has announced that it would provide $9 billion-plus from 2010 through 2012 under the Hatoyama Initiative, it is unclear exactly how much Japan is ready to give during that period, and after.
The Hatoyama administration has also been slow to introduce a carbon tax, and has not made any progress in discussions on trade in emission credits and power company purchases of all electric power generated through renewable energy sources. Mr. Hatoyama should quickly work out concrete low-carbon policy measures. Otherwise, Japan could be marginalized in the climate change negotiations and derided by the international community.
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